Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
22%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.933.00safe0.10–2.041.07–2.781.17–4.82safer0.00–2.290.84–3.010.69–5.30
Shots on target
21%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.705.699.40safe1.84–5.573.95–7.435.79–13.00safer1.35–6.063.48–7.904.84–13.96
Total shots
14%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7015.7226.42safe6.77–14.6212.16–19.2918.93–33.91safer5.68–15.7111.20–20.2416.88–35.96
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction6.2710.7317.00safe3.33–9.218.05–13.4111.38–22.62safer2.50–10.047.31–14.159.81–24.19
Blocked shots
19%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.674.507.16safe0.79–4.552.84–6.153.63–10.70safer0.24–5.092.35–6.642.59–11.74
Corners
20%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.745.809.53safe1.52–5.953.80–7.805.32–13.75safer0.95–6.523.26–8.334.21–14.85
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction42.4357.74safe35.64–49.2250.96–64.53safer33.97–50.8949.28–66.20
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction412537949safe345–479471–604816–1083safer327–498453–621780–1119
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction67.4379.21safe63.40–71.4574.88–83.53safer62.10–72.7573.57–84.84
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2112.8424.05safe8.37–14.049.90–15.7918.27–29.83safer7.61–14.809.15–16.5416.76–31.34
Offsides
34%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.903.56safe0.50–2.820.81–2.991.31–5.82safer0.20–3.130.52–3.280.72–6.41
Yellow cards
34%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.833.44safe0.56–2.660.70–2.951.26–5.62safer0.30–2.930.41–3.250.70–6.18
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.080.20safe0.00–0.280.00–0.270.00–0.54safer0.00–0.430.00–0.400.00–0.83
GK saves
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.622.666.28safe2.19–5.061.10–4.213.29–9.27safer1.80–5.450.68–4.642.48–10.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 0.10–2.04 0.00–2.29 | 1.93 1.07–2.78 0.84–3.01 | 3.00 1.17–4.82 0.69–5.30 | 21% 22% 57% |
| Shots on target | 3.70 1.84–5.57 1.35–6.06 | 5.69 3.95–7.43 3.48–7.90 | 9.40 5.79–13.00 4.84–13.96 | 21% 69% |
| Total shots | 10.70 6.77–14.62 5.68–15.71 | 15.72 12.16–19.29 11.20–20.24 | 26.42 18.93–33.91 16.88–35.96 | 14% 81% |
| Shots in box | 6.27 3.33–9.21 2.50–10.04 | 10.73 8.05–13.41 7.31–14.15 | 17.00 11.38–22.62 9.81–24.19 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 2.67 0.79–4.55 0.24–5.09 | 4.50 2.84–6.15 2.35–6.64 | 7.16 3.63–10.70 2.59–11.74 | 19% 69% |
| Corners | 3.74 1.52–5.95 0.95–6.52 | 5.80 3.80–7.80 3.26–8.33 | 9.53 5.32–13.75 4.21–14.85 | 20% 69% |
| Possession % | 42.43 35.64–49.22 33.97–50.89 | 57.74 50.96–64.53 49.28–66.20 | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 412 345–479 327–498 | 537 471–604 453–621 | 949 816–1083 780–1119 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.43 63.40–71.45 62.10–72.75 | 79.21 74.88–83.53 73.57–84.84 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 11.21 8.37–14.04 7.61–14.80 | 12.84 9.90–15.79 9.15–16.54 | 24.05 18.27–29.83 16.76–31.34 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.13 | 1.90 0.81–2.99 0.52–3.28 | 3.56 1.31–5.82 0.72–6.41 | 34% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.66 0.30–2.93 | 1.83 0.70–2.95 0.41–3.25 | 3.44 1.26–5.62 0.70–6.18 | 34% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.62 2.19–5.06 1.80–5.45 | 2.66 1.10–4.21 0.68–4.64 | 6.28 3.29–9.27 2.48–10.09 | 57% 15% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.