Premiership·Regular Season - 16·
Premiership·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
26%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.472.69safe0.25–2.180.61–2.320.86–4.51safer0.00–2.440.39–2.550.38–4.99
Shots on target
37%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.949.40safe2.59–6.323.20–6.685.79–13.00safer2.10–6.812.73–7.154.84–13.96
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2913.5326.82safe9.36–17.219.97–17.0919.33–34.30safer8.27–18.309.01–18.0517.28–36.35
Shots in box
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction8.839.0117.84safe5.89–11.776.33–11.6912.21–23.46safer5.06–12.605.59–12.4310.65–25.03
Blocked shots
41%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.693.787.47safe1.81–5.572.12–5.433.93–11.00safer1.27–6.121.63–5.922.90–12.04
Corners
45%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.365.2710.63safe3.14–7.573.27–7.276.41–14.84safer2.57–8.142.74–7.805.31–15.95
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction42.2257.58safe35.43–49.0150.80–64.37safer33.76–50.6849.13–66.04
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction388530918safe321–456464–596785–1052safer303–474446–614749–1088
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction65.3476.06safe61.31–69.3771.74–80.39safer60.02–70.6670.43–81.70
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4313.5324.96safe8.59–14.2710.59–16.4819.18–30.74safer7.84–15.029.84–17.2217.67–32.25
Offsides
36%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.793.45safe0.50–2.820.69–2.881.20–5.70safer0.20–3.120.41–3.170.61–6.29
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.033.93safe0.85–2.950.90–3.161.75–6.10safer0.58–3.210.61–3.451.19–6.66
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.313.246.54safe1.87–4.741.68–4.793.55–9.54safer1.48–5.131.26–5.222.74–10.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.18 0.00–2.44 | 1.47 0.61–2.32 0.39–2.55 | 2.69 0.86–4.51 0.38–4.99 | 31% 26% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.59–6.32 2.10–6.81 | 4.94 3.20–6.68 2.73–7.15 | 9.40 5.79–13.00 4.84–13.96 | 37% 13% 50% |
| Total shots | 13.29 9.36–17.21 8.27–18.30 | 13.53 9.97–17.09 9.01–18.05 | 26.82 19.33–34.30 17.28–36.35 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 8.83 5.89–11.77 5.06–12.60 | 9.01 6.33–11.69 5.59–12.43 | 17.84 12.21–23.46 10.65–25.03 | 44% 47% |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 1.81–5.57 1.27–6.12 | 3.78 2.12–5.43 1.63–5.92 | 7.47 3.93–11.00 2.90–12.04 | 41% 15% 44% |
| Corners | 5.36 3.14–7.57 2.57–8.14 | 5.27 3.27–7.27 2.74–7.80 | 10.63 6.41–14.84 5.31–15.95 | 45% 43% |
| Possession % | 42.22 35.43–49.01 33.76–50.68 | 57.58 50.80–64.37 49.13–66.04 | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 388 321–456 303–474 | 530 464–596 446–614 | 918 785–1052 749–1088 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.34 61.31–69.37 60.02–70.66 | 76.06 71.74–80.39 70.43–81.70 | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 11.43 8.59–14.27 7.84–15.02 | 13.53 10.59–16.48 9.84–17.22 | 24.96 19.18–30.74 17.67–32.25 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.66 0.50–2.82 0.20–3.12 | 1.79 0.69–2.88 0.41–3.17 | 3.45 1.20–5.70 0.61–6.29 | 36% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.95 0.58–3.21 | 2.03 0.90–3.16 0.61–3.45 | 3.93 1.75–6.10 1.19–6.66 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.31 1.87–4.74 1.48–5.13 | 3.24 1.68–4.79 1.26–5.22 | 6.54 3.55–9.54 2.74–10.35 | 43% 16% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.