Premiership·Regular Season - 16·
Premiership·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.362.67safe0.35–2.280.51–2.210.85–4.50safer0.10–2.530.28–2.440.37–4.98
Shots on target
45%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.634.499.12safe2.77–6.492.74–6.235.51–12.72safer2.28–6.982.28–6.694.56–13.68
Total shots
58%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2312.7326.97safe10.31–18.169.17–16.2919.48–34.45safer9.22–19.258.21–17.2517.43–36.50
Shots in box
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.698.2316.92safe5.75–11.645.55–10.9111.30–22.54safer4.92–12.464.81–11.649.73–24.11
Blocked shots
49%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.583.156.73safe1.70–5.471.50–4.803.20–10.27safer1.16–6.011.00–5.302.16–11.30
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.045.0810.12safe2.83–7.253.08–7.085.91–14.33safer2.25–7.832.55–7.614.80–15.44
Possession %
48%
48%
homeawayprediction49.7849.81safe42.99–56.5743.02–56.59safer41.32–58.2441.35–58.26
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction478461939safe411–545394–527805–1072safer393–563377–545769–1108
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction67.2971.09safe63.26–71.3266.77–75.42safer61.97–72.6165.46–76.72
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1212.0724.20safe9.28–14.969.13–15.0218.41–29.98safer8.53–15.728.38–15.7716.91–31.48
Offsides
42%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.603.36safe0.61–2.930.50–2.691.11–5.62safer0.31–3.230.21–2.980.52–6.21
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.903.52safe0.57–2.670.77–3.031.34–5.70safer0.30–2.930.48–3.320.79–6.26
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.953.286.23safe1.51–4.381.73–4.843.24–9.22safer1.12–4.771.30–5.262.43–10.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.35–2.28 0.10–2.53 | 1.36 0.51–2.21 0.28–2.44 | 2.67 0.85–4.50 0.37–4.98 | 36% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.77–6.49 2.28–6.98 | 4.49 2.74–6.23 2.28–6.69 | 9.12 5.51–12.72 4.56–13.68 | 45% 13% 41% |
| Total shots | 14.23 10.31–18.16 9.22–19.25 | 12.73 9.17–16.29 8.21–17.25 | 26.97 19.48–34.45 17.43–36.50 | 58% 35% |
| Shots in box | 8.69 5.75–11.64 4.92–12.46 | 8.23 5.55–10.91 4.81–11.64 | 16.92 11.30–22.54 9.73–24.11 | 50% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 1.70–5.47 1.16–6.01 | 3.15 1.50–4.80 1.00–5.30 | 6.73 3.20–10.27 2.16–11.30 | 49% 15% 36% |
| Corners | 5.04 2.83–7.25 2.25–7.83 | 5.08 3.08–7.08 2.55–7.61 | 10.12 5.91–14.33 4.80–15.44 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 49.78 42.99–56.57 41.32–58.24 | 49.81 43.02–56.59 41.35–58.26 | — | 48% 48% |
| Passes | 478 411–545 393–563 | 461 394–527 377–545 | 939 805–1072 769–1108 | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.29 63.26–71.32 61.97–72.61 | 71.09 66.77–75.42 65.46–76.72 | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 12.12 9.28–14.96 8.53–15.72 | 12.07 9.13–15.02 8.38–15.77 | 24.20 18.41–29.98 16.91–31.48 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.31–3.23 | 1.60 0.50–2.69 0.21–2.98 | 3.36 1.11–5.62 0.52–6.21 | 42% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.67 0.30–2.93 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.52 1.34–5.70 0.79–6.26 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.51–4.38 1.12–4.77 | 3.28 1.73–4.84 1.30–5.26 | 6.23 3.24–9.22 2.43–10.04 | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.