Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.312.62safe0.35–2.280.45–2.160.80–4.45safer0.10–2.530.23–2.390.32–4.93
Shots on target
50%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.634.138.77safe2.77–6.502.39–5.885.16–12.37safer2.28–6.991.93–6.344.21–13.33
Total shots
63%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4512.2226.67safe10.53–18.388.66–15.7819.19–34.16safer9.44–19.477.70–16.7417.14–36.21
Shots in box
57%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.117.8616.97safe6.17–12.065.18–10.5411.35–22.60safer5.34–12.894.44–11.289.78–24.16
Blocked shots
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.204.208.40safe2.31–6.082.55–5.854.86–11.93safer1.77–6.622.05–6.343.83–12.97
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.334.549.87safe3.12–7.552.54–6.545.66–14.08safer2.55–8.122.00–7.074.55–15.19
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.6848.61safe44.89–58.4741.82–55.39safer43.22–60.1440.15–57.06
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction457442899safe390–524376–509766–1033safer372–543358–526730–1069
Pass accuracy %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction66.8770.44safe62.84–70.9066.11–74.76safer61.55–72.1964.80–76.07
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9313.3526.28safe10.10–15.7710.40–16.2920.50–32.06safer9.34–16.539.65–17.0418.99–33.57
Offsides
36%
23%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.773.40safe0.46–2.780.68–2.871.14–5.65safer0.16–3.080.39–3.150.55–6.24
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.072.124.19safe1.02–3.120.99–3.252.01–6.36safer0.75–3.380.70–3.541.45–6.92
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.803.386.18safe1.36–4.231.83–4.943.19–9.17safer0.97–4.621.40–5.372.38–9.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.28 0.10–2.53 | 1.31 0.45–2.16 0.23–2.39 | 2.62 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 37% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.63 2.77–6.50 2.28–6.99 | 4.13 2.39–5.88 1.93–6.34 | 8.77 5.16–12.37 4.21–13.33 | 50% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 14.45 10.53–18.38 9.44–19.47 | 12.22 8.66–15.78 7.70–16.74 | 26.67 19.19–34.16 17.14–36.21 | 63% 30% |
| Shots in box | 9.11 6.17–12.06 5.34–12.89 | 7.86 5.18–10.54 4.44–11.28 | 16.97 11.35–22.60 9.78–24.16 | 57% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.20 2.31–6.08 1.77–6.62 | 4.20 2.55–5.85 2.05–6.34 | 8.40 4.86–11.93 3.83–12.97 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Corners | 5.33 3.12–7.55 2.55–8.12 | 4.54 2.54–6.54 2.00–7.07 | 9.87 5.66–14.08 4.55–15.19 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 51.68 44.89–58.47 43.22–60.14 | 48.61 41.82–55.39 40.15–57.06 | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 457 390–524 372–543 | 442 376–509 358–526 | 899 766–1033 730–1069 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.87 62.84–70.90 61.55–72.19 | 70.44 66.11–74.76 64.80–76.07 | — | 30% 65% |
| Fouls | 12.93 10.10–15.77 9.34–16.53 | 13.35 10.40–16.29 9.65–17.04 | 26.28 20.50–32.06 18.99–33.57 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.16–3.08 | 1.77 0.68–2.87 0.39–3.15 | 3.40 1.14–5.65 0.55–6.24 | 36% 23% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 1.02–3.12 0.75–3.38 | 2.12 0.99–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 4.19 2.01–6.36 1.45–6.92 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.36–4.23 0.97–4.62 | 3.38 1.83–4.94 1.40–5.37 | 6.18 3.19–9.17 2.38–9.98 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.