Premiership·Regular Season - 22·
Premiership·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
25%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.632.81safe0.21–2.140.78–2.480.98–4.63safer0.00–2.400.55–2.710.50–5.11
Shots on target
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.755.178.92safe1.89–5.613.43–6.915.31–12.53safer1.40–6.102.96–7.384.36–13.48
Total shots
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8314.7427.57safe8.90–16.7511.18–18.3020.08–35.06safer7.81–17.8410.22–19.2618.03–37.11
Shots in box
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction8.0710.2018.27safe5.12–11.017.52–12.8812.64–23.89safer4.29–11.846.78–13.6211.08–25.46
Blocked shots
35%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.754.378.12safe1.87–5.632.72–6.024.59–11.66safer1.33–6.182.23–6.523.55–12.69
Corners
39%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction5.175.5510.72safe2.96–7.383.55–7.556.51–14.93safer2.38–7.963.02–8.085.40–16.04
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction44.7255.22safe37.93–51.5148.43–62.00safer36.26–53.1846.76–63.67
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction390473863safe322–457407–540729–997safer304–475389–557693–1032
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction64.6873.88safe60.65–68.7169.56–78.20safer59.35–70.0068.25–79.51
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6112.7224.33safe8.77–14.459.78–15.6718.55–30.11safer8.01–15.209.03–16.4117.04–31.62
Offsides
28%
22%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.973.40safe0.27–2.590.88–3.061.14–5.65safer0.00–2.890.59–3.350.55–6.24
Yellow cards
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.943.48safe0.49–2.590.81–3.061.30–5.66safer0.23–2.860.52–3.360.74–6.21
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
55%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.422.616.03safe1.98–4.851.06–4.173.04–9.02safer1.60–5.240.63–4.592.23–9.84
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.21–2.14 0.00–2.40 | 1.63 0.78–2.48 0.55–2.71 | 2.81 0.98–4.63 0.50–5.11 | 28% 25% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.75 1.89–5.61 1.40–6.10 | 5.17 3.43–6.91 2.96–7.38 | 8.92 5.31–12.53 4.36–13.48 | 26% 62% |
| Total shots | 12.83 8.90–16.75 7.81–17.84 | 14.74 11.18–18.30 10.22–19.26 | 27.57 20.08–35.06 18.03–37.11 | 32% 61% |
| Shots in box | 8.07 5.12–11.01 4.29–11.84 | 10.20 7.52–12.88 6.78–13.62 | 18.27 12.64–23.89 11.08–25.46 | 27% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.75 1.87–5.63 1.33–6.18 | 4.37 2.72–6.02 2.23–6.52 | 8.12 4.59–11.66 3.55–12.69 | 35% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 5.17 2.96–7.38 2.38–7.96 | 5.55 3.55–7.55 3.02–8.08 | 10.72 6.51–14.93 5.40–16.04 | 39% 48% |
| Possession % | 44.72 37.93–51.51 36.26–53.18 | 55.22 48.43–62.00 46.76–63.67 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 390 322–457 304–475 | 473 407–540 389–557 | 863 729–997 693–1032 | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.68 60.65–68.71 59.35–70.00 | 73.88 69.56–78.20 68.25–79.51 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 11.61 8.77–14.45 8.01–15.20 | 12.72 9.78–15.67 9.03–16.41 | 24.33 18.55–30.11 17.04–31.62 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.43 0.27–2.59 0.00–2.89 | 1.97 0.88–3.06 0.59–3.35 | 3.40 1.14–5.65 0.55–6.24 | 28% 22% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.23–2.86 | 1.94 0.81–3.06 0.52–3.36 | 3.48 1.30–5.66 0.74–6.21 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.42 1.98–4.85 1.60–5.24 | 2.61 1.06–4.17 0.63–4.59 | 6.03 3.04–9.02 2.23–9.84 | 55% 16% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.