Premiership·Regular Season - 23·
Premiership·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
24%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.423.07safe0.68–2.620.57–2.281.25–4.89safer0.43–2.870.34–2.500.77–5.37
Shots on target
42%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.904.999.88safe3.03–6.763.24–6.736.28–13.49safer2.55–7.252.78–7.205.32–14.45
Total shots
55%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5513.3927.94safe10.62–18.479.82–16.9520.45–35.42safer9.53–19.578.86–17.9118.40–37.47
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction9.828.4418.26safe6.88–12.765.76–11.1312.64–23.89safer6.05–13.595.03–11.8611.07–25.45
Blocked shots
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.123.557.67safe2.24–6.001.90–5.214.14–11.21safer1.69–6.541.41–5.703.10–12.24
Corners
50%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.715.2310.94safe3.49–7.923.23–7.236.73–15.15safer2.92–8.492.70–7.775.62–16.26
Possession %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction43.0957.27safe36.30–49.8850.49–64.06safer34.63–51.5548.81–65.73
Passes
13%
87%
homeawaytotalprediction405539943safe338–472472–605810–1077safer319–490455–623774–1113
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction67.4476.53safe63.42–71.4772.21–80.85safer62.12–72.7770.90–82.16
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3111.8523.16safe8.48–14.158.91–14.8017.38–28.95safer7.72–14.918.16–15.5415.88–30.45
Offsides
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.043.96safe0.76–3.080.94–3.131.71–6.21safer0.46–3.380.66–3.421.12–6.80
Yellow cards
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.593.20safe0.56–2.660.46–2.721.02–5.38safer0.29–2.930.17–3.010.47–5.94
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.163.166.33safe1.73–4.601.61–4.723.33–9.32safer1.34–4.991.18–5.142.52–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.65 0.68–2.62 0.43–2.87 | 1.42 0.57–2.28 0.34–2.50 | 3.07 1.25–4.89 0.77–5.37 | 43% 24% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.03–6.76 2.55–7.25 | 4.99 3.24–6.73 2.78–7.20 | 9.88 6.28–13.49 5.32–14.45 | 42% 45% |
| Total shots | 14.55 10.62–18.47 9.53–19.57 | 13.39 9.82–16.95 8.86–17.91 | 27.94 20.45–35.42 18.40–37.47 | 55% 38% |
| Shots in box | 9.82 6.88–12.76 6.05–13.59 | 8.44 5.76–11.13 5.03–11.86 | 18.26 12.64–23.89 11.07–25.45 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 4.12 2.24–6.00 1.69–6.54 | 3.55 1.90–5.21 1.41–5.70 | 7.67 4.14–11.21 3.10–12.24 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Corners | 5.71 3.49–7.92 2.92–8.49 | 5.23 3.23–7.23 2.70–7.77 | 10.94 6.73–15.15 5.62–16.26 | 50% 38% |
| Possession % | 43.09 36.30–49.88 34.63–51.55 | 57.27 50.49–64.06 48.81–65.73 | — | 18% 78% |
| Passes | 405 338–472 319–490 | 539 472–605 455–623 | 943 810–1077 774–1113 | 13% 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.44 63.42–71.47 62.12–72.77 | 76.53 72.21–80.85 70.90–82.16 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 11.31 8.48–14.15 7.72–14.91 | 11.85 8.91–14.80 8.16–15.54 | 23.16 17.38–28.95 15.88–30.45 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.46–3.38 | 2.04 0.94–3.13 0.66–3.42 | 3.96 1.71–6.21 1.12–6.80 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.66 0.29–2.93 | 1.59 0.46–2.72 0.17–3.01 | 3.20 1.02–5.38 0.47–5.94 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.16 1.73–4.60 1.34–4.99 | 3.16 1.61–4.72 1.18–5.14 | 6.33 3.33–9.32 2.52–10.13 | 42% 16% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.