Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
27%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.262.54safe0.32–2.260.40–2.110.72–4.37safer0.07–2.510.17–2.340.24–4.85
Shots on target
43%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.993.947.93safe2.13–5.852.20–5.684.32–11.53safer1.64–6.341.73–6.153.37–12.49
Total shots
51%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2112.6425.86safe9.29–17.149.08–16.2018.37–33.34safer8.20–18.238.12–17.1616.32–35.39
Shots in box
42%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction8.008.3116.30safe5.05–10.945.62–10.9910.68–21.92safer4.22–11.774.89–11.729.11–23.49
Blocked shots
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.514.087.59safe1.63–5.392.43–5.734.05–11.12safer1.08–5.941.93–6.223.02–12.16
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.244.9610.20safe3.03–7.462.96–6.965.99–14.41safer2.46–8.032.42–7.494.88–15.52
Possession %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction49.0051.65safe42.21–55.7944.87–58.44safer40.54–57.4643.20–60.11
Passes
51%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction436431867safe368–503365–498733–1001safer350–521347–515698–1036
Pass accuracy %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction65.1371.23safe61.10–69.1666.91–75.56safer59.81–70.4565.60–76.87
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1113.2024.31safe8.27–13.9410.25–16.1418.52–30.09safer7.51–14.709.51–16.8917.02–31.59
Offsides
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.973.44safe0.31–2.630.88–3.061.19–5.70safer0.01–2.940.59–3.350.60–6.29
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.103.75safe0.60–2.700.97–3.231.58–5.93safer0.33–2.970.68–3.521.02–6.49
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.18safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
40%
18%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.592.675.26safe1.15–4.021.11–4.232.26–8.25safer0.76–4.410.69–4.651.45–9.06
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.32–2.26 0.07–2.51 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 2.54 0.72–4.37 0.24–4.85 | 37% 27% 36% |
| Shots on target | 3.99 2.13–5.85 1.64–6.34 | 3.94 2.20–5.68 1.73–6.15 | 7.93 4.32–11.53 3.37–12.49 | 43% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 13.21 9.29–17.14 8.20–18.23 | 12.64 9.08–16.20 8.12–17.16 | 25.86 18.37–33.34 16.32–35.39 | 51% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.00 5.05–10.94 4.22–11.77 | 8.31 5.62–10.99 4.89–11.72 | 16.30 10.68–21.92 9.11–23.49 | 42% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 3.51 1.63–5.39 1.08–5.94 | 4.08 2.43–5.73 1.93–6.22 | 7.59 4.05–11.12 3.02–12.16 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Corners | 5.24 3.03–7.46 2.46–8.03 | 4.96 2.96–6.96 2.42–7.49 | 10.20 5.99–14.41 4.88–15.52 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 49.00 42.21–55.79 40.54–57.46 | 51.65 44.87–58.44 43.20–60.11 | — | 41% 54% |
| Passes | 436 368–503 350–521 | 431 365–498 347–515 | 867 733–1001 698–1036 | 51% 48% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.13 61.10–69.16 59.81–70.45 | 71.23 66.91–75.56 65.60–76.87 | — | 20% 77% |
| Fouls | 11.11 8.27–13.94 7.51–14.70 | 13.20 10.25–16.14 9.51–16.89 | 24.31 18.52–30.09 17.02–31.59 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.31–2.63 0.01–2.94 | 1.97 0.88–3.06 0.59–3.35 | 3.44 1.19–5.70 0.60–6.29 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.70 0.33–2.97 | 2.10 0.97–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 3.75 1.58–5.93 1.02–6.49 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.59 1.15–4.02 0.76–4.41 | 2.67 1.11–4.23 0.69–4.65 | 5.26 2.26–8.25 1.45–9.06 | 40% 18% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.