Premiership·Regular Season - 27·
Premiership·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.211.492.70safe0.24–2.180.63–2.340.88–4.52safer0.00–2.430.41–2.570.40–5.00
Shots on target
35%
13%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.024.678.69safe2.16–5.892.92–6.415.09–12.30safer1.67–6.382.46–6.874.13–13.25
Total shots
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1914.6727.85safe9.26–17.1111.11–18.2320.37–35.34safer8.17–18.2010.15–19.1918.32–37.39
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction8.309.6217.91safe5.35–11.246.94–12.3012.29–23.54safer4.52–12.076.20–13.0410.72–25.10
Blocked shots
42%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.994.048.02safe2.11–5.872.38–5.694.49–11.56safer1.56–6.411.89–6.183.45–12.59
Corners
41%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction5.325.5410.86safe3.10–7.533.54–7.546.64–15.07safer2.53–8.103.01–8.075.54–16.18
Possession %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction46.9853.05safe40.19–53.7746.27–59.84safer38.52–55.4444.59–61.51
Passes
35%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction404448852safe336–471382–515718–986safer318–489364–532683–1021
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction66.0672.30safe62.03–70.0967.97–76.62safer60.74–71.3966.67–77.93
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2612.8825.15safe9.43–15.109.94–15.8319.36–30.93safer8.67–15.869.19–16.5817.86–32.43
Offsides
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.803.23safe0.27–2.590.70–2.890.98–5.49safer0.00–2.900.42–3.180.39–6.08
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.913.81safe0.85–2.950.78–3.041.63–5.99safer0.58–3.220.49–3.331.08–6.55
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.112.875.98safe1.67–4.541.31–4.422.98–8.97safer1.28–4.930.89–4.852.17–9.78
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 0.24–2.18 0.00–2.43 | 1.49 0.63–2.34 0.41–2.57 | 2.70 0.88–4.52 0.40–5.00 | 31% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.02 2.16–5.89 1.67–6.38 | 4.67 2.92–6.41 2.46–6.87 | 8.69 5.09–12.30 4.13–13.25 | 35% 13% 52% |
| Total shots | 13.19 9.26–17.11 8.17–18.20 | 14.67 11.11–18.23 10.15–19.19 | 27.85 20.37–35.34 18.32–37.39 | 35% 57% |
| Shots in box | 8.30 5.35–11.24 4.52–12.07 | 9.62 6.94–12.30 6.20–13.04 | 17.91 12.29–23.54 10.72–25.10 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.11–5.87 1.56–6.41 | 4.04 2.38–5.69 1.89–6.18 | 8.02 4.49–11.56 3.45–12.59 | 42% 14% 43% |
| Corners | 5.32 3.10–7.53 2.53–8.10 | 5.54 3.54–7.54 3.01–8.07 | 10.86 6.64–15.07 5.54–16.18 | 41% 47% |
| Possession % | 46.98 40.19–53.77 38.52–55.44 | 53.05 46.27–59.84 44.59–61.51 | — | 34% 62% |
| Passes | 404 336–471 318–489 | 448 382–515 364–532 | 852 718–986 683–1021 | 35% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.06 62.03–70.09 60.74–71.39 | 72.30 67.97–76.62 66.67–77.93 | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 12.26 9.43–15.10 8.67–15.86 | 12.88 9.94–15.83 9.19–16.58 | 25.15 19.36–30.93 17.86–32.43 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.43 0.27–2.59 0.00–2.90 | 1.80 0.70–2.89 0.42–3.18 | 3.23 0.98–5.49 0.39–6.08 | 31% 23% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.95 0.58–3.22 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.81 1.63–5.99 1.08–6.55 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.67–4.54 1.28–4.93 | 2.87 1.31–4.42 0.89–4.85 | 5.98 2.98–8.97 2.17–9.78 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.