Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.372.89safe0.56–2.490.51–2.221.07–4.71safer0.30–2.740.28–2.450.59–5.19
Shots on target
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.104.479.57safe3.23–6.962.73–6.225.96–13.17safer2.74–7.452.26–6.685.01–14.13
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7812.9827.76safe10.85–18.709.42–16.5420.27–35.24safer9.76–19.808.46–17.5018.22–37.30
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.688.2217.90safe6.74–12.635.54–10.9012.28–23.53safer5.91–13.464.80–11.6410.71–25.09
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.783.166.94safe1.90–5.671.50–4.813.40–10.48safer1.36–6.211.01–5.302.37–11.51
Corners
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.644.6910.33safe3.43–7.862.69–6.696.12–14.55safer2.85–8.432.16–7.225.01–15.65
Possession %
46%
50%
homeawayprediction49.2450.03safe42.45–56.0343.24–56.81safer40.78–57.7041.57–58.48
Passes
52%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction457450906safe389–524383–516773–1040safer371–542366–534737–1076
Pass accuracy %
28%
67%
homeawayprediction66.8170.82safe62.78–70.8466.49–75.14safer61.49–72.1365.18–76.45
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6713.1625.83safe9.83–15.5110.22–16.1120.05–31.61safer9.07–16.269.47–16.8618.54–33.12
Offsides
42%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.623.40safe0.61–2.940.53–2.721.14–5.65safer0.31–3.240.24–3.000.56–6.24
Yellow cards
37%
21%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.003.87safe0.82–2.920.87–3.131.69–6.04safer0.55–3.180.58–3.421.13–6.60
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.20safe0.00–0.230.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.003.436.43safe1.56–4.431.88–4.993.44–9.42safer1.17–4.821.45–5.412.62–10.23
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.56–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 1.37 0.51–2.22 0.28–2.45 | 2.89 1.07–4.71 0.59–5.19 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Shots on target | 5.10 3.23–6.96 2.74–7.45 | 4.47 2.73–6.22 2.26–6.68 | 9.57 5.96–13.17 5.01–14.13 | 51% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.78 10.85–18.70 9.76–19.80 | 12.98 9.42–16.54 8.46–17.50 | 27.76 20.27–35.24 18.22–37.30 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.68 6.74–12.63 5.91–13.46 | 8.22 5.54–10.90 4.80–11.64 | 17.90 12.28–23.53 10.71–25.09 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 1.90–5.67 1.36–6.21 | 3.16 1.50–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 6.94 3.40–10.48 2.37–11.51 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.64 3.43–7.86 2.85–8.43 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.16–7.22 | 10.33 6.12–14.55 5.01–15.65 | 55% 32% |
| Possession % | 49.24 42.45–56.03 40.78–57.70 | 50.03 43.24–56.81 41.57–58.48 | — | 46% 50% |
| Passes | 457 389–524 371–542 | 450 383–516 366–534 | 906 773–1040 737–1076 | 52% 47% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.81 62.78–70.84 61.49–72.13 | 70.82 66.49–75.14 65.18–76.45 | — | 28% 67% |
| Fouls | 12.67 9.83–15.51 9.07–16.26 | 13.16 10.22–16.11 9.47–16.86 | 25.83 20.05–31.61 18.54–33.12 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.61–2.94 0.31–3.24 | 1.62 0.53–2.72 0.24–3.00 | 3.40 1.14–5.65 0.56–6.24 | 42% 23% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.92 0.55–3.18 | 2.00 0.87–3.13 0.58–3.42 | 3.87 1.69–6.04 1.13–6.60 | 37% 21% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.56–4.43 1.17–4.82 | 3.43 1.88–4.99 1.45–5.41 | 6.43 3.44–9.42 2.62–10.23 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.