Premier League·Regular Season - 11·
Premier League·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
51%
24%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.122.82safe0.73–2.670.26–1.971.00–4.64safer0.48–2.920.03–2.200.52–5.12
Shots on target
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.223.869.08safe3.36–7.082.12–5.605.47–12.68safer2.87–7.571.65–6.074.52–13.64
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6111.2725.88safe10.69–18.547.71–14.8318.40–33.37safer9.60–19.636.75–15.7916.35–35.42
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction9.758.0917.84safe6.81–12.695.41–10.7812.22–23.47safer5.98–13.524.68–11.5110.65–25.03
Blocked shots
63%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.192.796.98safe2.31–6.081.13–4.443.45–10.52safer1.77–6.620.64–4.932.41–11.55
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.954.2710.22safe3.74–8.162.27–6.276.01–14.43safer3.16–8.741.74–6.804.90–15.54
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction58.0841.17safe51.29–64.8734.38–47.95safer49.62–66.5432.71–49.62
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction506346851safe438–573279–412718–985safer420–591262–430682–1021
Pass accuracy %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction72.7567.30safe68.72–76.7862.97–71.62safer67.43–78.0761.66–72.93
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5412.9225.45safe9.70–15.379.97–15.8619.67–31.24safer8.94–16.139.22–16.6118.17–32.74
Offsides
14%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction1.303.174.47safe0.14–2.462.08–4.262.22–6.73safer0.00–2.761.79–4.551.63–7.32
Yellow cards
26%
18%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.594.39safe0.75–2.851.46–3.722.21–6.57safer0.48–3.111.17–4.011.65–7.12
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.493.265.75safe1.06–3.931.70–4.822.76–8.74safer0.67–4.321.28–5.241.95–9.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.73–2.67 0.48–2.92 | 1.12 0.26–1.97 0.03–2.20 | 2.82 1.00–4.64 0.52–5.12 | 51% 24% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.22 3.36–7.08 2.87–7.57 | 3.86 2.12–5.60 1.65–6.07 | 9.08 5.47–12.68 4.52–13.64 | 61% 27% |
| Total shots | 14.61 10.69–18.54 9.60–19.63 | 11.27 7.71–14.83 6.75–15.79 | 25.88 18.40–33.37 16.35–35.42 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 9.75 6.81–12.69 5.98–13.52 | 8.09 5.41–10.78 4.68–11.51 | 17.84 12.22–23.47 10.65–25.03 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.31–6.08 1.77–6.62 | 2.79 1.13–4.44 0.64–4.93 | 6.98 3.45–10.52 2.41–11.55 | 63% 13% 23% |
| Corners | 5.95 3.74–8.16 3.16–8.74 | 4.27 2.27–6.27 1.74–6.80 | 10.22 6.01–14.43 4.90–15.54 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 58.08 51.29–64.87 49.62–66.54 | 41.17 34.38–47.95 32.71–49.62 | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 506 438–573 420–591 | 346 279–412 262–430 | 851 718–985 682–1021 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.75 68.72–76.78 67.43–78.07 | 67.30 62.97–71.62 61.66–72.93 | — | 74% 22% |
| Fouls | 12.54 9.70–15.37 8.94–16.13 | 12.92 9.97–15.86 9.22–16.61 | 25.45 19.67–31.24 18.17–32.74 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.30 0.14–2.46 0.00–2.76 | 3.17 2.08–4.26 1.79–4.55 | 4.47 2.22–6.73 1.63–7.32 | 14% 74% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.48–3.11 | 2.59 1.46–3.72 1.17–4.01 | 4.39 2.21–6.57 1.65–7.12 | 26% 18% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.49 1.06–3.93 0.67–4.32 | 3.26 1.70–4.82 1.28–5.24 | 5.75 2.76–8.74 1.95–9.56 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.