Premier League·Regular Season - 11·
Premier League·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
27%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.062.47safe0.44–2.380.20–1.910.64–4.29safer0.19–2.630.00–2.140.16–4.77
Shots on target
51%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.533.978.51safe2.67–6.392.23–5.724.90–12.11safer2.18–6.881.76–6.183.94–13.07
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1911.3525.55safe10.27–18.127.79–14.9218.06–33.03safer9.18–19.216.83–15.8816.01–35.08
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction8.777.6516.41safe5.82–11.714.96–10.3310.79–22.04safer5.00–12.544.23–11.069.22–23.60
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.803.166.95safe1.91–5.681.50–4.813.42–10.49safer1.37–6.221.01–5.302.38–11.52
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.564.4710.03safe3.35–7.772.47–6.475.82–14.24safer2.77–8.351.94–7.004.71–15.35
Possession %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction54.3846.75safe47.59–61.1739.97–53.54safer45.92–62.8438.29–55.21
Passes
74%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction468389858safe401–535323–456724–991safer383–554305–473688–1027
Pass accuracy %
47%
48%
homeawayprediction68.1068.24safe64.07–72.1363.92–72.57safer62.78–73.4262.61–73.88
Fouls
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1413.5624.71safe8.31–13.9810.62–16.5118.93–30.49safer7.55–14.749.87–17.2617.42–32.00
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.683.57safe0.72–3.040.59–2.781.31–5.82safer0.42–3.350.30–3.060.72–6.41
Yellow cards
28%
19%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.812.484.29safe0.76–2.861.35–3.612.11–6.46safer0.49–3.121.06–3.901.55–7.02
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.85
GK saves
32%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.215.83safe1.18–4.051.66–4.772.83–8.82safer0.79–4.441.23–5.192.02–9.63
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.44–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.06 0.20–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 2.47 0.64–4.29 0.16–4.77 | 45% 27% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.53 2.67–6.39 2.18–6.88 | 3.97 2.23–5.72 1.76–6.18 | 8.51 4.90–12.11 3.94–13.07 | 51% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.19 10.27–18.12 9.18–19.21 | 11.35 7.79–14.92 6.83–15.88 | 25.55 18.06–33.03 16.01–35.08 | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 8.77 5.82–11.71 5.00–12.54 | 7.65 4.96–10.33 4.23–11.06 | 16.41 10.79–22.04 9.22–23.60 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.80 1.91–5.68 1.37–6.22 | 3.16 1.50–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 6.95 3.42–10.49 2.38–11.52 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.56 3.35–7.77 2.77–8.35 | 4.47 2.47–6.47 1.94–7.00 | 10.03 5.82–14.24 4.71–15.35 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 54.38 47.59–61.17 45.92–62.84 | 46.75 39.97–53.54 38.29–55.21 | — | 65% 30% |
| Passes | 468 401–535 383–554 | 389 323–456 305–473 | 858 724–991 688–1027 | 74% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.10 64.07–72.13 62.78–73.42 | 68.24 63.92–72.57 62.61–73.88 | — | 47% 48% |
| Fouls | 11.14 8.31–13.98 7.55–14.74 | 13.56 10.62–16.51 9.87–17.26 | 24.71 18.93–30.49 17.42–32.00 | 28% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.35 | 1.68 0.59–2.78 0.30–3.06 | 3.57 1.31–5.82 0.72–6.41 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 0.76–2.86 0.49–3.12 | 2.48 1.35–3.61 1.06–3.90 | 4.29 2.11–6.46 1.55–7.02 | 28% 19% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 3.21 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.19 | 5.83 2.83–8.82 2.02–9.63 | 32% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+