Premier League·Regular Season - 11·
Premier League·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.252.71safe0.50–2.430.39–2.100.89–4.53safer0.25–2.680.16–2.330.41–5.01
Shots on target
49%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.684.228.90safe2.82–6.542.48–5.965.30–12.51safer2.33–7.032.01–6.434.34–13.46
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4412.0726.51safe10.52–18.378.51–15.6319.02–34.00safer9.43–19.467.55–16.5916.97–36.05
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction9.098.2517.34safe6.15–12.035.57–10.9311.72–22.96safer5.32–12.864.83–11.6710.15–24.53
Blocked shots
53%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.073.357.42safe2.19–5.961.69–5.003.89–10.96safer1.65–6.501.20–5.492.85–11.99
Corners
46%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.425.2610.68safe3.21–7.643.26–7.266.47–14.89safer2.64–8.212.72–7.795.36–16.00
Possession %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction48.0851.38safe41.29–54.8744.59–58.16safer39.62–56.5442.92–59.83
Passes
50%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction455455910safe388–522389–522777–1044safer370–541371–539741–1080
Pass accuracy %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction67.4170.71safe63.38–71.4466.38–75.03safer62.09–72.7365.07–76.34
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7311.3022.03safe7.89–13.578.36–14.2516.25–27.82safer7.14–14.327.61–15.0014.75–29.32
Offsides
19%
18%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.332.513.85safe0.17–2.491.42–3.601.59–6.10safer0.00–2.801.13–3.891.00–6.69
Yellow cards
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.773.33safe0.51–2.610.64–2.901.15–5.50safer0.24–2.870.35–3.190.59–6.06
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
34%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.175.84safe1.24–4.111.61–4.722.85–8.84safer0.85–4.501.18–5.152.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.50–2.43 0.25–2.68 | 1.25 0.39–2.10 0.16–2.33 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 42% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.68 2.82–6.54 2.33–7.03 | 4.22 2.48–5.96 2.01–6.43 | 8.90 5.30–12.51 4.34–13.46 | 49% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 14.44 10.52–18.37 9.43–19.46 | 12.07 8.51–15.63 7.55–16.59 | 26.51 19.02–34.00 16.97–36.05 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 9.09 6.15–12.03 5.32–12.86 | 8.25 5.57–10.93 4.83–11.67 | 17.34 11.72–22.96 10.15–24.53 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 4.07 2.19–5.96 1.65–6.50 | 3.35 1.69–5.00 1.20–5.49 | 7.42 3.89–10.96 2.85–11.99 | 53% 14% 32% |
| Corners | 5.42 3.21–7.64 2.64–8.21 | 5.26 3.26–7.26 2.72–7.79 | 10.68 6.47–14.89 5.36–16.00 | 46% 42% |
| Possession % | 48.08 41.29–54.87 39.62–56.54 | 51.38 44.59–58.16 42.92–59.83 | — | 40% 55% |
| Passes | 455 388–522 370–541 | 455 389–522 371–539 | 910 777–1044 741–1080 | 50% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.41 63.38–71.44 62.09–72.73 | 70.71 66.38–75.03 65.07–76.34 | — | 31% 64% |
| Fouls | 10.73 7.89–13.57 7.14–14.32 | 11.30 8.36–14.25 7.61–15.00 | 22.03 16.25–27.82 14.75–29.32 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.33 0.17–2.49 0.00–2.80 | 2.51 1.42–3.60 1.13–3.89 | 3.85 1.59–6.10 1.00–6.69 | 19% 18% 63% |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 0.51–2.61 0.24–2.87 | 1.77 0.64–2.90 0.35–3.19 | 3.33 1.15–5.50 0.59–6.06 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.24–4.11 0.85–4.50 | 3.17 1.61–4.72 1.18–5.15 | 5.84 2.85–8.84 2.04–9.65 | 34% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+