Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
25%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.582.72safe0.17–2.110.72–2.430.90–4.54safer0.00–2.360.49–2.660.42–5.02
Shots on target
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.725.118.83safe1.86–5.593.37–6.855.23–12.44safer1.37–6.082.90–7.324.27–13.40
Total shots
22%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9914.2725.26safe7.06–14.9110.71–17.8317.77–32.75safer5.97–16.009.75–18.7915.72–34.80
Shots in box
35%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction8.239.3017.53safe5.29–11.176.62–11.9811.91–23.16safer4.46–12.005.88–12.7210.34–24.72
Blocked shots
25%
13%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.024.357.37safe1.13–4.902.70–6.013.83–10.90safer0.59–5.442.21–6.502.80–11.94
Corners
36%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.575.169.73safe2.36–6.793.16–7.165.52–13.95safer1.79–7.362.63–7.694.41–15.05
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction33.6066.79safe26.81–40.3960.01–73.58safer25.14–42.0658.34–75.25
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction303596899safe236–370530–663765–1033safer217–388512–680730–1068
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction62.1681.37safe58.13–66.1977.05–85.70safer56.84–67.4875.74–87.01
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0210.9321.94safe8.18–13.857.98–13.8716.16–27.73safer7.42–14.617.23–14.6214.66–29.23
Offsides
36%
21%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.033.86safe0.67–2.990.94–3.121.60–6.11safer0.37–3.290.65–3.411.01–6.70
Yellow cards
42%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.833.81safe0.93–3.030.70–2.961.63–5.99safer0.66–3.300.41–3.251.07–6.55
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.262.515.77safe1.82–4.690.96–4.072.78–8.77safer1.43–5.080.53–4.501.97–9.58
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.11 0.00–2.36 | 1.58 0.72–2.43 0.49–2.66 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.42–5.02 | 28% 25% 47% |
| Shots on target | 3.72 1.86–5.59 1.37–6.08 | 5.11 3.37–6.85 2.90–7.32 | 8.83 5.23–12.44 4.27–13.40 | 26% 62% |
| Total shots | 10.99 7.06–14.91 5.97–16.00 | 14.27 10.71–17.83 9.75–18.79 | 25.26 17.77–32.75 15.72–34.80 | 22% 71% |
| Shots in box | 8.23 5.29–11.17 4.46–12.00 | 9.30 6.62–11.98 5.88–12.72 | 17.53 11.91–23.16 10.34–24.72 | 35% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 3.02 1.13–4.90 0.59–5.44 | 4.35 2.70–6.01 2.21–6.50 | 7.37 3.83–10.90 2.80–11.94 | 25% 13% 62% |
| Corners | 4.57 2.36–6.79 1.79–7.36 | 5.16 3.16–7.16 2.63–7.69 | 9.73 5.52–13.95 4.41–15.05 | 36% 51% |
| Possession % | 33.60 26.81–40.39 25.14–42.06 | 66.79 60.01–73.58 58.34–75.25 | — | 97% |
| Passes | 303 236–370 217–388 | 596 530–663 512–680 | 899 765–1033 730–1068 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.16 58.13–66.19 56.84–67.48 | 81.37 77.05–85.70 75.74–87.01 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 11.02 8.18–13.85 7.42–14.61 | 10.93 7.98–13.87 7.23–14.62 | 21.94 16.16–27.73 14.66–29.23 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.83 0.67–2.99 0.37–3.29 | 2.03 0.94–3.12 0.65–3.41 | 3.86 1.60–6.11 1.01–6.70 | 36% 21% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.03 0.66–3.30 | 1.83 0.70–2.96 0.41–3.25 | 3.81 1.63–5.99 1.07–6.55 | 42% 21% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.26 1.82–4.69 1.43–5.08 | 2.51 0.96–4.07 0.53–4.50 | 5.77 2.78–8.77 1.97–9.58 | 54% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.