Premier League·Regular Season - 11·
Premier League·Regular Season - 11·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.452.89safe0.47–2.400.60–2.311.07–4.71safer0.22–2.660.37–2.540.59–5.19
Shots on target
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.024.249.26safe3.16–6.892.50–5.985.66–12.87safer2.67–7.382.03–6.454.70–13.82
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.9711.1826.15safe11.04–18.897.62–14.7518.66–33.64safer9.95–19.986.66–15.7116.61–35.69
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.327.6217.94safe7.38–13.264.94–10.3012.31–23.56safer6.55–14.094.20–11.0410.75–25.13
Blocked shots
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.513.848.35safe2.63–6.402.19–5.494.82–11.89safer2.09–6.941.69–5.983.78–12.92
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.874.3110.17safe3.65–8.082.31–6.315.96–14.39safer3.08–8.651.77–6.844.85–15.49
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction50.8648.58safe44.07–57.6541.79–55.36safer42.40–59.3240.12–57.03
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction489460949safe422–557393–526815–1083safer404–575376–544780–1118
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction73.8575.59safe69.82–77.8871.26–79.91safer68.53–79.1769.95–81.22
Fouls
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction10.919.1020.01safe8.07–13.756.15–12.0414.23–25.79safer7.32–14.505.40–12.7912.72–27.29
Offsides
30%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.123.74safe0.45–2.781.03–3.211.48–5.99safer0.15–3.080.74–3.500.89–6.58
Yellow cards
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.763.66safe0.85–2.950.63–2.891.48–5.83safer0.58–3.210.34–3.180.92–6.39
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.14safe0.00–0.240.00–0.250.00–0.49safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
35%
16%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.963.386.34safe1.52–4.391.83–4.943.35–9.33safer1.13–4.781.40–5.362.53–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.47–2.40 0.22–2.66 | 1.45 0.60–2.31 0.37–2.54 | 2.89 1.07–4.71 0.59–5.19 | 37% 25% 38% |
| Shots on target | 5.02 3.16–6.89 2.67–7.38 | 4.24 2.50–5.98 2.03–6.45 | 9.26 5.66–12.87 4.70–13.82 | 54% 34% |
| Total shots | 14.97 11.04–18.89 9.95–19.98 | 11.18 7.62–14.75 6.66–15.71 | 26.15 18.66–33.64 16.61–35.69 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 10.32 7.38–13.26 6.55–14.09 | 7.62 4.94–10.30 4.20–11.04 | 17.94 12.31–23.56 10.75–25.13 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 4.51 2.63–6.40 2.09–6.94 | 3.84 2.19–5.49 1.69–5.98 | 8.35 4.82–11.89 3.78–12.92 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Corners | 5.87 3.65–8.08 3.08–8.65 | 4.31 2.31–6.31 1.77–6.84 | 10.17 5.96–14.39 4.85–15.49 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 50.86 44.07–57.65 42.40–59.32 | 48.58 41.79–55.36 40.12–57.03 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 489 422–557 404–575 | 460 393–526 376–544 | 949 815–1083 780–1118 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.85 69.82–77.88 68.53–79.17 | 75.59 71.26–79.91 69.95–81.22 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 10.91 8.07–13.75 7.32–14.50 | 9.10 6.15–12.04 5.40–12.79 | 20.01 14.23–25.79 12.72–27.29 | 62% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.45–2.78 0.15–3.08 | 2.12 1.03–3.21 0.74–3.50 | 3.74 1.48–5.99 0.89–6.58 | 30% 21% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.95 0.58–3.21 | 1.76 0.63–2.89 0.34–3.18 | 3.66 1.48–5.83 0.92–6.39 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.96 1.52–4.39 1.13–4.78 | 3.38 1.83–4.94 1.40–5.36 | 6.34 3.35–9.33 2.53–10.14 | 35% 16% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+