Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.192.92safe0.76–2.700.34–2.051.10–4.74safer0.51–2.950.11–2.270.62–5.22
Shots on target
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.804.149.94safe3.93–7.662.40–5.886.33–13.54safer3.44–8.151.93–6.355.38–14.50
Total shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction17.0711.1128.19safe13.15–21.007.55–14.6820.70–35.67safer12.06–22.096.59–15.6318.65–37.72
Shots in box
75%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction11.337.8619.19safe8.38–14.275.18–10.5413.57–24.81safer7.56–15.104.45–11.2812.00–26.38
Blocked shots
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.063.088.14safe3.17–6.941.43–4.744.60–11.67safer2.63–7.480.94–5.233.57–12.71
Corners
77%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.914.0210.93safe4.70–9.132.02–6.026.72–15.15safer4.12–9.701.49–6.565.61–16.25
Possession %
83%
15%
homeawayprediction58.2441.43safe51.45–65.0334.64–48.21safer49.78–66.7032.97–49.88
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction533374907safe466–600307–440773–1040safer447–618290–458737–1076
Pass accuracy %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction79.2972.08safe75.26–83.3267.75–76.40safer73.97–84.6266.44–77.71
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9112.4124.32safe9.08–14.759.46–15.3518.54–30.10safer8.32–15.518.71–16.1017.03–31.61
Offsides
40%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.723.47safe0.60–2.920.62–2.811.22–5.73safer0.29–3.220.34–3.100.63–6.31
Yellow cards
28%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.404.18safe0.72–2.821.28–3.532.00–6.35safer0.46–3.090.98–3.821.44–6.91
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78
GK saves
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.736.49safe1.32–4.192.18–5.293.49–9.48safer0.93–4.581.75–5.712.68–10.29
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.19 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.27 | 2.92 1.10–4.74 0.62–5.22 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.80 3.93–7.66 3.44–8.15 | 4.14 2.40–5.88 1.93–6.35 | 9.94 6.33–13.54 5.38–14.50 | 64% 25% |
| Total shots | 17.07 13.15–21.00 12.06–22.09 | 11.11 7.55–14.68 6.59–15.63 | 28.19 20.70–35.67 18.65–37.72 | 85% |
| Shots in box | 11.33 8.38–14.27 7.56–15.10 | 7.86 5.18–10.54 4.45–11.28 | 19.19 13.57–24.81 12.00–26.38 | 75% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 5.06 3.17–6.94 2.63–7.48 | 3.08 1.43–4.74 0.94–5.23 | 8.14 4.60–11.67 3.57–12.71 | 70% 19% |
| Corners | 6.91 4.70–9.13 4.12–9.70 | 4.02 2.02–6.02 1.49–6.56 | 10.93 6.72–15.15 5.61–16.25 | 77% 15% |
| Possession % | 58.24 51.45–65.03 49.78–66.70 | 41.43 34.64–48.21 32.97–49.88 | — | 83% 15% |
| Passes | 533 466–600 447–618 | 374 307–440 290–458 | 907 773–1040 737–1076 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.29 75.26–83.32 73.97–84.62 | 72.08 67.75–76.40 66.44–77.71 | — | 81% 16% |
| Fouls | 11.91 9.08–14.75 8.32–15.51 | 12.41 9.46–15.35 8.71–16.10 | 24.32 18.54–30.10 17.03–31.61 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.29–3.22 | 1.72 0.62–2.81 0.34–3.10 | 3.47 1.22–5.73 0.63–6.31 | 40% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.46–3.09 | 2.40 1.28–3.53 0.98–3.82 | 4.18 2.00–6.35 1.44–6.91 | 28% 19% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.75 1.32–4.19 0.93–4.58 | 3.73 2.18–5.29 1.75–5.71 | 6.49 3.49–9.48 2.68–10.29 | 28% 15% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.