Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.422.85safe0.47–2.400.56–2.271.03–4.68safer0.22–2.660.33–2.500.55–5.16
Shots on target
35%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.475.189.65safe2.61–6.333.43–6.926.04–13.25safer2.12–6.822.97–7.395.08–14.21
Total shots
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0413.4826.52safe9.11–16.969.92–17.0419.03–34.00safer8.02–18.058.96–18.0016.98–36.05
Shots in box
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction9.198.9318.12safe6.25–12.146.25–11.6112.50–23.74safer5.42–12.975.51–12.3510.93–25.31
Blocked shots
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.964.158.10safe2.07–5.842.49–5.804.57–11.64safer1.53–6.382.00–6.293.53–12.67
Corners
46%
13%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.914.729.63safe2.69–7.122.72–6.725.41–13.84safer2.12–7.692.19–7.254.31–14.95
Possession %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction41.3359.11safe34.54–48.1252.32–65.89safer32.87–49.7950.65–67.56
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction387563950safe320–454496–629816–1084safer302–473479–647781–1119
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction72.5182.38safe68.48–76.5478.06–86.71safer67.19–77.8376.75–88.01
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3612.7024.06safe8.53–14.209.75–15.6418.28–29.84safer7.77–14.969.00–16.3916.77–31.35
Offsides
73%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction3.011.254.26safe1.85–4.170.16–2.352.01–6.52safer1.55–4.470.00–2.631.42–7.11
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.124.21safe1.04–3.141.00–3.252.03–6.39safer0.77–3.400.70–3.541.47–6.95
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.242.986.22safe1.81–4.681.42–4.533.23–9.21safer1.42–5.071.00–4.962.42–10.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.47–2.40 0.22–2.66 | 1.42 0.56–2.27 0.33–2.50 | 2.85 1.03–4.68 0.55–5.16 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.47 2.61–6.33 2.12–6.82 | 5.18 3.43–6.92 2.97–7.39 | 9.65 6.04–13.25 5.08–14.21 | 35% 53% |
| Total shots | 13.04 9.11–16.96 8.02–18.05 | 13.48 9.92–17.04 8.96–18.00 | 26.52 19.03–34.00 16.98–36.05 | 43% 50% |
| Shots in box | 9.19 6.25–12.14 5.42–12.97 | 8.93 6.25–11.61 5.51–12.35 | 18.12 12.50–23.74 10.93–25.31 | 48% 43% |
| Blocked shots | 3.96 2.07–5.84 1.53–6.38 | 4.15 2.49–5.80 2.00–6.29 | 8.10 4.57–11.64 3.53–12.67 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Corners | 4.91 2.69–7.12 2.12–7.69 | 4.72 2.72–6.72 2.19–7.25 | 9.63 5.41–13.84 4.31–14.95 | 46% 13% 41% |
| Possession % | 41.33 34.54–48.12 32.87–49.79 | 59.11 52.32–65.89 50.65–67.56 | — | 13% 84% |
| Passes | 387 320–454 302–473 | 563 496–629 479–647 | 950 816–1084 781–1119 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.51 68.48–76.54 67.19–77.83 | 82.38 78.06–86.71 76.75–88.01 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 11.36 8.53–14.20 7.77–14.96 | 12.70 9.75–15.64 9.00–16.39 | 24.06 18.28–29.84 16.77–31.35 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 3.01 1.85–4.17 1.55–4.47 | 1.25 0.16–2.35 0.00–2.63 | 4.26 2.01–6.52 1.42–7.11 | 73% 14% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.04–3.14 0.77–3.40 | 2.12 1.00–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 4.21 2.03–6.39 1.47–6.95 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.24 1.81–4.68 1.42–5.07 | 2.98 1.42–4.53 1.00–4.96 | 6.22 3.23–9.21 2.42–10.03 | 46% 16% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+