Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.052.61safe0.59–2.520.20–1.910.79–4.43safer0.34–2.780.00–2.140.31–4.91
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.063.648.70safe3.19–6.921.90–5.385.09–12.30safer2.71–7.411.43–5.854.14–13.26
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2110.6626.87safe12.28–20.137.10–14.2219.38–34.36safer11.19–21.226.14–15.1817.33–36.41
Shots in box
75%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction10.267.0117.27safe7.32–13.204.33–9.6911.64–22.89safer6.49–14.033.59–10.4310.08–24.46
Blocked shots
57%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.483.467.94safe2.60–6.361.81–5.114.40–11.47safer2.05–6.911.31–5.603.37–12.51
Corners
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.763.6710.43safe4.55–8.981.67–5.676.22–14.65safer3.98–9.551.13–6.205.11–15.75
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction59.9739.36safe53.18–66.7632.57–46.14safer51.51–68.4330.90–47.81
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction554347901safe487–621281–414767–1035safer469–639263–431732–1070
Pass accuracy %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction70.6766.74safe66.64–74.7062.42–71.07safer65.35–75.9961.11–72.38
Fouls
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction9.7810.8620.64safe6.94–12.627.91–13.8014.85–26.42safer6.18–13.377.16–14.5513.35–27.92
Offsides
54%
21%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.283.30safe0.86–3.180.19–2.381.05–5.55safer0.56–3.480.00–2.660.46–6.14
Yellow cards
24%
20%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.362.173.54safe0.32–2.411.04–3.301.36–5.71safer0.05–2.680.75–3.590.80–6.27
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.77
GK saves
26%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.423.495.91safe0.99–3.861.93–5.052.92–8.91safer0.60–4.251.51–5.472.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.59–2.52 0.34–2.78 | 1.05 0.20–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.31–4.91 | 49% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.06 3.19–6.92 2.71–7.41 | 3.64 1.90–5.38 1.43–5.85 | 8.70 5.09–12.30 4.14–13.26 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.21 12.28–20.13 11.19–21.22 | 10.66 7.10–14.22 6.14–15.18 | 26.87 19.38–34.36 17.33–36.41 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 10.26 7.32–13.20 6.49–14.03 | 7.01 4.33–9.69 3.59–10.43 | 17.27 11.64–22.89 10.08–24.46 | 75% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 4.48 2.60–6.36 2.05–6.91 | 3.46 1.81–5.11 1.31–5.60 | 7.94 4.40–11.47 3.37–12.51 | 57% 14% 29% |
| Corners | 6.76 4.55–8.98 3.98–9.55 | 3.67 1.67–5.67 1.13–6.20 | 10.43 6.22–14.65 5.11–15.75 | 79% |
| Possession % | 59.97 53.18–66.76 51.51–68.43 | 39.36 32.57–46.14 30.90–47.81 | — | 88% |
| Passes | 554 487–621 469–639 | 347 281–414 263–431 | 901 767–1035 732–1070 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.67 66.64–74.70 65.35–75.99 | 66.74 62.42–71.07 61.11–72.38 | — | 67% 28% |
| Fouls | 9.78 6.94–12.62 6.18–13.37 | 10.86 7.91–13.80 7.16–14.55 | 20.64 14.85–26.42 13.35–27.92 | 36% 55% |
| Offsides | 2.02 0.86–3.18 0.56–3.48 | 1.28 0.19–2.38 0.00–2.66 | 3.30 1.05–5.55 0.46–6.14 | 54% 21% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.36 0.32–2.41 0.05–2.68 | 2.17 1.04–3.30 0.75–3.59 | 3.54 1.36–5.71 0.80–6.27 | 24% 20% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.42 0.99–3.86 0.60–4.25 | 3.49 1.93–5.05 1.51–5.47 | 5.91 2.92–8.91 2.11–9.72 | 26% 15% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+