Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
26%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.482.61safe0.16–2.100.62–2.330.79–4.43safer0.00–2.350.40–2.560.31–4.91
Shots on target
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.495.168.65safe1.62–5.353.42–6.915.05–12.26safer1.14–5.842.96–7.374.09–13.21
Total shots
24%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6914.8726.56safe7.77–15.6211.31–18.4319.07–34.05safer6.67–16.7110.35–19.3917.02–36.10
Shots in box
25%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction7.359.5916.94safe4.41–10.296.91–12.2711.31–22.56safer3.58–11.126.17–13.019.75–24.13
Blocked shots
33%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.694.408.10safe1.81–5.572.75–6.064.56–11.63safer1.27–6.122.26–6.553.53–12.67
Corners
35%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.885.5910.47safe2.66–7.093.59–7.596.26–14.68safer2.09–7.663.06–8.135.15–15.79
Possession %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction41.4759.32safe34.68–48.2652.53–66.10safer33.01–49.9350.86–67.77
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction369538907safe302–436472–605773–1041safer284–454454–622738–1076
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction63.6976.88safe59.66–67.7272.55–81.20safer58.36–69.0171.24–82.51
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9912.0222.01safe7.15–12.839.08–14.9716.23–27.80safer6.40–13.588.33–15.7214.73–29.30
Offsides
59%
19%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.321.343.67safe1.16–3.480.25–2.441.41–5.92safer0.86–3.780.00–2.730.82–6.51
Yellow cards
33%
22%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.943.58safe0.59–2.690.81–3.071.40–5.76safer0.32–2.950.52–3.360.84–6.31
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
55%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.362.545.90safe1.93–4.800.98–4.102.91–8.90safer1.54–5.190.56–4.522.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.16–2.10 0.00–2.35 | 1.48 0.62–2.33 0.40–2.56 | 2.61 0.79–4.43 0.31–4.91 | 29% 26% 45% |
| Shots on target | 3.49 1.62–5.35 1.14–5.84 | 5.16 3.42–6.91 2.96–7.37 | 8.65 5.05–12.26 4.09–13.21 | 23% 65% |
| Total shots | 11.69 7.77–15.62 6.67–16.71 | 14.87 11.31–18.43 10.35–19.39 | 26.56 19.07–34.05 17.02–36.10 | 24% 70% |
| Shots in box | 7.35 4.41–10.29 3.58–11.12 | 9.59 6.91–12.27 6.17–13.01 | 16.94 11.31–22.56 9.75–24.13 | 25% 66% |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 1.81–5.57 1.27–6.12 | 4.40 2.75–6.06 2.26–6.55 | 8.10 4.56–11.63 3.53–12.67 | 33% 14% 53% |
| Corners | 4.88 2.66–7.09 2.09–7.66 | 5.59 3.59–7.59 3.06–8.13 | 10.47 6.26–14.68 5.15–15.79 | 35% 53% |
| Possession % | 41.47 34.68–48.26 33.01–49.93 | 59.32 52.53–66.10 50.86–67.77 | — | 13% 84% |
| Passes | 369 302–436 284–454 | 538 472–605 454–622 | 907 773–1041 738–1076 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.69 59.66–67.72 58.36–69.01 | 76.88 72.55–81.20 71.24–82.51 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 9.99 7.15–12.83 6.40–13.58 | 12.02 9.08–14.97 8.33–15.72 | 22.01 16.23–27.80 14.73–29.30 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 2.32 1.16–3.48 0.86–3.78 | 1.34 0.25–2.44 0.00–2.73 | 3.67 1.41–5.92 0.82–6.51 | 59% 19% 21% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.32–2.95 | 1.94 0.81–3.07 0.52–3.36 | 3.58 1.40–5.76 0.84–6.31 | 33% 22% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.36 1.93–4.80 1.54–5.19 | 2.54 0.98–4.10 0.56–4.52 | 5.90 2.91–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 55% 16% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.