Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
25%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.452.76safe0.34–2.280.59–2.300.94–4.58safer0.09–2.530.37–2.530.46–5.06
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.234.518.73safe2.36–6.092.76–6.255.13–12.34safer1.87–6.582.30–6.714.17–13.29
Total shots
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1713.8125.97safe8.24–16.0910.24–17.3718.48–33.46safer7.15–17.189.28–18.3316.43–35.51
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction7.618.9016.51safe4.67–10.556.22–11.5810.89–22.13safer3.84–11.385.48–12.329.32–23.70
Blocked shots
39%
15%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.683.957.62safe1.79–5.562.29–5.604.09–11.16safer1.25–6.101.80–6.093.05–12.19
Corners
52%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.134.489.61safe2.91–7.342.48–6.485.40–13.82safer2.34–7.921.95–7.014.29–14.93
Possession %
66%
29%
homeawayprediction54.4646.29safe47.67–61.2539.51–53.08safer46.00–62.9237.83–54.75
Passes
77%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction519430950safe452–586364–497816–1083safer434–605346–514780–1119
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction71.1673.02safe67.13–75.1968.70–77.35safer65.83–76.4867.39–78.66
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4311.6323.05safe8.59–14.268.68–14.5717.27–28.83safer7.83–15.027.93–15.3215.76–30.34
Offsides
26%
21%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.452.153.60safe0.29–2.611.06–3.241.35–5.86safer0.00–2.910.77–3.530.76–6.44
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.933.89safe0.90–3.000.81–3.061.71–6.06safer0.64–3.270.51–3.351.15–6.62
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.645.68safe1.61–4.481.08–4.192.69–8.68safer1.22–4.870.66–4.621.88–9.49
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.45 0.59–2.30 0.37–2.53 | 2.76 0.94–4.58 0.46–5.06 | 34% 25% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.23 2.36–6.09 1.87–6.58 | 4.51 2.76–6.25 2.30–6.71 | 8.73 5.13–12.34 4.17–13.29 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.17 8.24–16.09 7.15–17.18 | 13.81 10.24–17.37 9.28–18.33 | 25.97 18.48–33.46 16.43–35.51 | 34% 59% |
| Shots in box | 7.61 4.67–10.55 3.84–11.38 | 8.90 6.22–11.58 5.48–12.32 | 16.51 10.89–22.13 9.32–23.70 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.68 1.79–5.56 1.25–6.10 | 3.95 2.29–5.60 1.80–6.09 | 7.62 4.09–11.16 3.05–12.19 | 39% 15% 47% |
| Corners | 5.13 2.91–7.34 2.34–7.92 | 4.48 2.48–6.48 1.95–7.01 | 9.61 5.40–13.82 4.29–14.93 | 52% 35% |
| Possession % | 54.46 47.67–61.25 46.00–62.92 | 46.29 39.51–53.08 37.83–54.75 | — | 66% 29% |
| Passes | 519 452–586 434–605 | 430 364–497 346–514 | 950 816–1083 780–1119 | 77% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.16 67.13–75.19 65.83–76.48 | 73.02 68.70–77.35 67.39–78.66 | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 11.43 8.59–14.26 7.83–15.02 | 11.63 8.68–14.57 7.93–15.32 | 23.05 17.27–28.83 15.76–30.34 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.29–2.61 0.00–2.91 | 2.15 1.06–3.24 0.77–3.53 | 3.60 1.35–5.86 0.76–6.44 | 26% 21% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.00 0.64–3.27 | 1.93 0.81–3.06 0.51–3.35 | 3.89 1.71–6.06 1.15–6.62 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.61–4.48 1.22–4.87 | 2.64 1.08–4.19 0.66–4.62 | 5.68 2.69–8.68 1.88–9.49 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.