Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
25%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.462.79safe0.36–2.290.61–2.320.97–4.61safer0.11–2.550.38–2.550.49–5.09
Shots on target
37%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.304.779.07safe2.44–6.163.02–6.515.46–12.67safer1.95–6.652.56–6.974.51–13.63
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0313.8526.89safe9.11–16.9610.29–17.4219.40–34.37safer8.02–18.059.33–18.3817.35–36.43
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction8.359.1917.54safe5.41–11.296.51–11.8711.92–23.16safer4.58–12.125.77–12.6110.35–24.73
Blocked shots
31%
14%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.424.287.70safe1.53–5.302.63–5.934.16–11.23safer0.99–5.842.13–6.423.12–12.27
Corners
38%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.795.2810.08safe2.58–7.013.28–7.285.86–14.29safer2.01–7.582.75–7.824.76–15.40
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.5254.41safe39.73–53.3147.63–61.20safer38.06–54.9845.96–62.87
Passes
30%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction426487912safe358–493420–553779–1046safer340–511403–571743–1082
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction69.3775.06safe65.34–73.4070.74–79.38safer64.05–74.6969.43–80.69
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9511.9024.84safe10.11–15.788.95–14.8419.06–30.63safer9.35–16.548.20–15.5917.56–32.13
Offsides
60%
17%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.771.704.47safe1.61–3.930.61–2.792.22–6.72safer1.31–4.230.32–3.081.63–7.31
Yellow cards
40%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.064.15safe1.04–3.140.93–3.191.97–6.32safer0.77–3.400.64–3.481.41–6.88
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.293.106.38safe1.85–4.721.54–4.653.39–9.38safer1.46–5.111.12–5.082.58–10.19
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.29 0.11–2.55 | 1.46 0.61–2.32 0.38–2.55 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.49–5.09 | 34% 25% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.30 2.44–6.16 1.95–6.65 | 4.77 3.02–6.51 2.56–6.97 | 9.07 5.46–12.67 4.51–13.63 | 37% 13% 49% |
| Total shots | 13.03 9.11–16.96 8.02–18.05 | 13.85 10.29–17.42 9.33–18.38 | 26.89 19.40–34.37 17.35–36.43 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 8.35 5.41–11.29 4.58–12.12 | 9.19 6.51–11.87 5.77–12.61 | 17.54 11.92–23.16 10.35–24.73 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 1.53–5.30 0.99–5.84 | 4.28 2.63–5.93 2.13–6.42 | 7.70 4.16–11.23 3.12–12.27 | 31% 14% 55% |
| Corners | 4.79 2.58–7.01 2.01–7.58 | 5.28 3.28–7.28 2.75–7.82 | 10.08 5.86–14.29 4.76–15.40 | 38% 50% |
| Possession % | 46.52 39.73–53.31 38.06–54.98 | 54.41 47.63–61.20 45.96–62.87 | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 426 358–493 340–511 | 487 420–553 403–571 | 912 779–1046 743–1082 | 30% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.37 65.34–73.40 64.05–74.69 | 75.06 70.74–79.38 69.43–80.69 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 12.95 10.11–15.78 9.35–16.54 | 11.90 8.95–14.84 8.20–15.59 | 24.84 19.06–30.63 17.56–32.13 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.77 1.61–3.93 1.31–4.23 | 1.70 0.61–2.79 0.32–3.08 | 4.47 2.22–6.72 1.63–7.31 | 60% 17% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.04–3.14 0.77–3.40 | 2.06 0.93–3.19 0.64–3.48 | 4.15 1.97–6.32 1.41–6.88 | 40% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.29 1.85–4.72 1.46–5.11 | 3.10 1.54–4.65 1.12–5.08 | 6.38 3.39–9.38 2.58–10.19 | 45% 16% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.