Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.112.94safe0.86–2.800.26–1.971.12–4.77safer0.61–3.050.03–2.200.64–5.25
Shots on target
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.893.689.57safe4.03–7.761.93–5.425.97–13.18safer3.54–8.251.47–5.895.01–14.13
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9010.3227.22safe12.97–20.826.75–13.8819.73–34.70safer11.88–21.915.80–14.8417.68–36.75
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction11.087.4118.49safe8.14–14.024.73–10.0912.87–24.12safer7.31–14.854.00–10.8311.30–25.68
Blocked shots
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.243.528.77safe3.36–7.121.87–5.185.23–12.30safer2.82–7.671.38–5.674.19–13.34
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.494.2510.74safe4.28–8.702.25–6.256.53–14.95safer3.70–9.281.71–6.785.42–16.06
Possession %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction58.0942.36safe51.30–64.8835.57–49.14safer49.63–66.5533.90–50.81
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction535379914safe468–602312–445780–1048safer450–620295–463745–1083
Pass accuracy %
76%
21%
homeawayprediction75.4069.52safe71.37–79.4365.20–73.85safer70.08–80.7263.89–75.16
Fouls
28%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6611.7921.46safe6.83–12.508.85–14.7415.67–27.24safer6.07–13.268.10–15.4914.17–28.74
Offsides
49%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.503.48safe0.81–3.130.41–2.601.22–5.73safer0.51–3.430.12–2.890.63–6.32
Yellow cards
25%
21%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.382.113.49safe0.33–2.430.98–3.241.31–5.66safer0.06–2.700.69–3.530.75–6.22
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75
GK saves
24%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.563.856.40safe1.12–3.992.29–5.413.41–9.40safer0.73–4.381.87–5.832.60–10.21
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.83 0.86–2.80 0.61–3.05 | 1.11 0.26–1.97 0.03–2.20 | 2.94 1.12–4.77 0.64–5.25 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.89 4.03–7.76 3.54–8.25 | 3.68 1.93–5.42 1.47–5.89 | 9.57 5.97–13.18 5.01–14.13 | 71% 19% |
| Total shots | 16.90 12.97–20.82 11.88–21.91 | 10.32 6.75–13.88 5.80–14.84 | 27.22 19.73–34.70 17.68–36.75 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 11.08 8.14–14.02 7.31–14.85 | 7.41 4.73–10.09 4.00–10.83 | 18.49 12.87–24.12 11.30–25.68 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 5.24 3.36–7.12 2.82–7.67 | 3.52 1.87–5.18 1.38–5.67 | 8.77 5.23–12.30 4.19–13.34 | 66% 22% |
| Corners | 6.49 4.28–8.70 3.70–9.28 | 4.25 2.25–6.25 1.71–6.78 | 10.74 6.53–14.95 5.42–16.06 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 58.09 51.30–64.88 49.63–66.55 | 42.36 35.57–49.14 33.90–50.81 | — | 81% 16% |
| Passes | 535 468–602 450–620 | 379 312–445 295–463 | 914 780–1048 745–1083 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.40 71.37–79.43 70.08–80.72 | 69.52 65.20–73.85 63.89–75.16 | — | 76% 21% |
| Fouls | 9.66 6.83–12.50 6.07–13.26 | 11.79 8.85–14.74 8.10–15.49 | 21.46 15.67–27.24 14.17–28.74 | 28% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.50 0.41–2.60 0.12–2.89 | 3.48 1.22–5.73 0.63–6.32 | 49% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.38 0.33–2.43 0.06–2.70 | 2.11 0.98–3.24 0.69–3.53 | 3.49 1.31–5.66 0.75–6.22 | 25% 21% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.56 1.12–3.99 0.73–4.38 | 3.85 2.29–5.41 1.87–5.83 | 6.40 3.41–9.40 2.60–10.21 | 24% 14% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.