Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.452.58safe0.16–2.100.60–2.300.76–4.40safer0.00–2.350.37–2.530.28–4.88
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.224.148.36safe2.36–6.092.40–5.884.76–11.97safer1.87–6.581.93–6.353.80–12.93
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6311.9025.53safe9.70–17.558.34–15.4618.04–33.02safer8.61–18.657.38–16.4215.99–35.07
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.928.3117.23safe5.98–11.865.62–10.9911.60–22.85safer5.15–12.694.89–11.7210.04–24.42
Blocked shots
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.383.848.23safe2.50–6.262.19–5.504.69–11.76safer1.96–6.811.70–5.993.65–12.80
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.164.759.92safe2.95–7.382.75–6.755.70–14.13safer2.38–7.952.22–7.294.60–15.24
Possession %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction44.3155.73safe37.52–51.1048.95–62.52safer35.85–52.7747.28–64.19
Passes
18%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction386494879safe318–453427–560746–1013safer300–471410–578710–1049
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction66.9072.88safe62.87–70.9268.55–77.20safer61.57–72.2267.24–78.51
Fouls
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6810.7623.44safe9.85–15.527.81–13.7017.66–29.22safer9.09–16.287.06–14.4516.16–30.73
Offsides
33%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.873.47safe0.44–2.770.78–2.961.22–5.73safer0.14–3.070.49–3.250.63–6.32
Yellow cards
38%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.112.254.36safe1.07–3.161.12–3.382.18–6.54safer0.80–3.430.83–3.671.63–7.10
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.145.86safe1.28–4.151.59–4.702.87–8.85safer0.89–4.541.16–5.122.06–9.67
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.16–2.10 0.00–2.35 | 1.45 0.60–2.30 0.37–2.53 | 2.58 0.76–4.40 0.28–4.88 | 29% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.22 2.36–6.09 1.87–6.58 | 4.14 2.40–5.88 1.93–6.35 | 8.36 4.76–11.97 3.80–12.93 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 13.63 9.70–17.55 8.61–18.65 | 11.90 8.34–15.46 7.38–16.42 | 25.53 18.04–33.02 15.99–35.07 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.92 5.98–11.86 5.15–12.69 | 8.31 5.62–10.99 4.89–11.72 | 17.23 11.60–22.85 10.04–24.42 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 4.38 2.50–6.26 1.96–6.81 | 3.84 2.19–5.50 1.70–5.99 | 8.23 4.69–11.76 3.65–12.80 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Corners | 5.16 2.95–7.38 2.38–7.95 | 4.75 2.75–6.75 2.22–7.29 | 9.92 5.70–14.13 4.60–15.24 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 44.31 37.52–51.10 35.85–52.77 | 55.73 48.95–62.52 47.28–64.19 | — | 23% 73% |
| Passes | 386 318–453 300–471 | 494 427–560 410–578 | 879 746–1013 710–1049 | 18% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.90 62.87–70.92 61.57–72.22 | 72.88 68.55–77.20 67.24–78.51 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 12.68 9.85–15.52 9.09–16.28 | 10.76 7.81–13.70 7.06–14.45 | 23.44 17.66–29.22 16.16–30.73 | 62% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.77 0.14–3.07 | 1.87 0.78–2.96 0.49–3.25 | 3.47 1.22–5.73 0.63–6.32 | 33% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.07–3.16 0.80–3.43 | 2.25 1.12–3.38 0.83–3.67 | 4.36 2.18–6.54 1.63–7.10 | 38% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.28–4.15 0.89–4.54 | 3.14 1.59–4.70 1.16–5.12 | 5.86 2.87–8.85 2.06–9.67 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.