Premier League·Regular Season - 12·
Premier League·Regular Season - 12·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
26%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.422.58safe0.20–2.130.56–2.270.76–4.41safer0.00–2.380.34–2.500.28–4.88
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.054.518.56safe2.19–5.912.76–6.254.95–12.16safer1.70–6.402.30–6.724.00–13.12
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9812.9625.94safe9.06–16.919.39–16.5218.45–33.43safer7.97–18.008.43–17.4816.40–35.48
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.738.6617.39safe5.79–11.685.97–11.3411.77–23.01safer4.96–12.515.24–12.0710.20–24.58
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.573.967.53safe1.69–5.452.31–5.613.99–11.06safer1.14–6.001.81–6.102.96–12.10
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.995.1810.17safe2.77–7.203.18–7.185.96–14.38safer2.20–7.772.65–7.724.85–15.49
Possession %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction41.3859.12safe34.59–48.1752.33–65.90safer32.92–49.8450.66–67.57
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction346512858safe279–413446–579724–992safer260–431428–596689–1027
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction66.9279.04safe62.89–70.9574.72–83.37safer61.60–72.2473.41–84.68
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2513.0126.26safe10.41–16.0910.06–15.9520.47–32.04safer9.66–16.849.31–16.7018.97–33.54
Offsides
50%
22%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.383.29safe0.75–3.070.29–2.471.04–5.55safer0.45–3.380.00–2.760.45–6.14
Yellow cards
40%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.212.234.45safe1.17–3.261.10–3.362.27–6.62safer0.90–3.530.81–3.651.71–7.18
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
43%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.912.795.70safe1.48–4.351.23–4.352.71–8.70safer1.09–4.740.81–4.771.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.20–2.13 0.00–2.38 | 1.42 0.56–2.27 0.34–2.50 | 2.58 0.76–4.41 0.28–4.88 | 31% 26% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.05 2.19–5.91 1.70–6.40 | 4.51 2.76–6.25 2.30–6.72 | 8.56 4.95–12.16 4.00–13.12 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 12.98 9.06–16.91 7.97–18.00 | 12.96 9.39–16.52 8.43–17.48 | 25.94 18.45–33.43 16.40–35.48 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 8.73 5.79–11.68 4.96–12.51 | 8.66 5.97–11.34 5.24–12.07 | 17.39 11.77–23.01 10.20–24.58 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.57 1.69–5.45 1.14–6.00 | 3.96 2.31–5.61 1.81–6.10 | 7.53 3.99–11.06 2.96–12.10 | 37% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.77–7.20 2.20–7.77 | 5.18 3.18–7.18 2.65–7.72 | 10.17 5.96–14.38 4.85–15.49 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 41.38 34.59–48.17 32.92–49.84 | 59.12 52.33–65.90 50.66–67.57 | — | 13% 84% |
| Passes | 346 279–413 260–431 | 512 446–579 428–596 | 858 724–992 689–1027 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.92 62.89–70.95 61.60–72.24 | 79.04 74.72–83.37 73.41–84.68 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 13.25 10.41–16.09 9.66–16.84 | 13.01 10.06–15.95 9.31–16.70 | 26.26 20.47–32.04 18.97–33.54 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.91 0.75–3.07 0.45–3.38 | 1.38 0.29–2.47 0.00–2.76 | 3.29 1.04–5.55 0.45–6.14 | 50% 22% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 1.17–3.26 0.90–3.53 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 4.45 2.27–6.62 1.71–7.18 | 40% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.91 1.48–4.35 1.09–4.74 | 2.79 1.23–4.35 0.81–4.77 | 5.70 2.71–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 43% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.