Premier League·Regular Season - 13·
Premier League·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.561.072.63safe0.60–2.530.21–1.920.81–4.46safer0.35–2.780.00–2.150.33–4.94
Shots on target
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.254.069.31safe3.38–7.112.32–5.815.70–12.91safer2.89–7.601.86–6.274.75–13.87
Total shots
78%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5711.1526.71safe11.64–19.497.58–14.7119.23–34.20safer10.55–20.586.62–15.6717.17–36.25
Shots in box
64%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction10.388.2718.65safe7.44–13.325.59–10.9513.03–24.28safer6.61–14.154.85–11.6911.46–25.84
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.602.777.37safe2.72–6.481.12–4.423.84–10.91safer2.18–7.030.62–4.912.80–11.94
Corners
65%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.134.3810.51safe3.92–8.342.38–6.386.29–14.72safer3.34–8.921.84–6.915.19–15.83
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.0940.89safe52.30–65.8834.10–47.67safer50.63–67.5532.43–49.35
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction543370913safe476–610303–436779–1046safer458–628286–454743–1082
Pass accuracy %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction74.0367.24safe70.00–78.0662.91–71.56safer68.71–79.3661.60–72.87
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5411.0722.61safe8.71–14.388.13–14.0216.83–28.40safer7.95–15.147.38–14.7615.33–29.90
Offsides
14%
15%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction1.262.934.20safe0.10–2.421.84–4.031.94–6.45safer0.00–2.721.55–4.311.35–7.04
Yellow cards
27%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.572.213.78safe0.52–2.621.08–3.341.60–5.96safer0.25–2.880.79–3.631.04–6.51
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
29%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.506.13safe1.19–4.061.95–5.063.14–9.12safer0.80–4.451.52–5.482.32–9.93
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.60–2.53 0.35–2.78 | 1.07 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.63 0.81–4.46 0.33–4.94 | 49% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.25 3.38–7.11 2.89–7.60 | 4.06 2.32–5.81 1.86–6.27 | 9.31 5.70–12.91 4.75–13.87 | 59% 29% |
| Total shots | 15.57 11.64–19.49 10.55–20.58 | 11.15 7.58–14.71 6.62–15.67 | 26.71 19.23–34.20 17.17–36.25 | 78% 17% |
| Shots in box | 10.38 7.44–13.32 6.61–14.15 | 8.27 5.59–10.95 4.85–11.69 | 18.65 13.03–24.28 11.46–25.84 | 64% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 4.60 2.72–6.48 2.18–7.03 | 2.77 1.12–4.42 0.62–4.91 | 7.37 3.84–10.91 2.80–11.94 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.13 3.92–8.34 3.34–8.92 | 4.38 2.38–6.38 1.84–6.91 | 10.51 6.29–14.72 5.19–15.83 | 65% 24% |
| Possession % | 59.09 52.30–65.88 50.63–67.55 | 40.89 34.10–47.67 32.43–49.35 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 543 476–610 458–628 | 370 303–436 286–454 | 913 779–1046 743–1082 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.03 70.00–78.06 68.71–79.36 | 67.24 62.91–71.56 61.60–72.87 | — | 79% 17% |
| Fouls | 11.54 8.71–14.38 7.95–15.14 | 11.07 8.13–14.02 7.38–14.76 | 22.61 16.83–28.40 15.33–29.90 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 1.26 0.10–2.42 0.00–2.72 | 2.93 1.84–4.03 1.55–4.31 | 4.20 1.94–6.45 1.35–7.04 | 14% 15% 71% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.52–2.62 0.25–2.88 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 3.78 1.60–5.96 1.04–6.51 | 27% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.19–4.06 0.80–4.45 | 3.50 1.95–5.06 1.52–5.48 | 6.13 3.14–9.12 2.32–9.93 | 29% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+