Premier League·Regular Season - 13·
Premier League·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.291.502.79safe0.32–2.260.65–2.360.97–4.61safer0.07–2.510.42–2.580.49–5.09
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.314.468.77safe2.44–6.172.72–6.215.17–12.38safer1.96–6.662.26–6.674.21–13.33
Total shots
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9412.6525.59safe9.02–16.879.09–16.2118.10–33.08safer7.92–17.968.13–17.1716.05–35.13
Shots in box
41%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction8.178.6216.80safe5.23–11.125.94–11.3011.17–22.42safer4.40–11.955.20–12.049.61–23.99
Blocked shots
43%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.773.787.55safe1.89–5.662.13–5.434.02–11.09safer1.35–6.201.64–5.932.98–12.13
Corners
43%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.864.889.74safe2.64–7.072.88–6.885.52–13.95safer2.07–7.642.35–7.414.42–15.06
Possession %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction42.9257.58safe36.13–49.7150.79–64.36safer34.46–51.3849.12–66.03
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction381511892safe314–449444–577758–1026safer296–467427–595723–1061
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction65.6778.01safe61.64–69.7073.68–82.33safer60.35–70.9972.38–83.64
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8412.6623.50safe8.00–13.689.72–15.6117.72–29.29safer7.25–14.438.97–16.3616.22–30.79
Offsides
49%
21%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.061.603.66safe0.90–3.220.50–2.691.41–5.92safer0.60–3.530.22–2.980.82–6.50
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.364.25safe0.83–2.931.24–3.492.07–6.43safer0.57–3.200.94–3.781.51–6.98
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.972.865.83safe1.53–4.401.31–4.422.84–8.82safer1.14–4.790.88–4.852.03–9.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 0.32–2.26 0.07–2.51 | 1.50 0.65–2.36 0.42–2.58 | 2.79 0.97–4.61 0.49–5.09 | 33% 25% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.31 2.44–6.17 1.96–6.66 | 4.46 2.72–6.21 2.26–6.67 | 8.77 5.17–12.38 4.21–13.33 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 12.94 9.02–16.87 7.92–17.96 | 12.65 9.09–16.21 8.13–17.17 | 25.59 18.10–33.08 16.05–35.13 | 48% 44% |
| Shots in box | 8.17 5.23–11.12 4.40–11.95 | 8.62 5.94–11.30 5.20–12.04 | 16.80 11.17–22.42 9.61–23.99 | 41% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 1.89–5.66 1.35–6.20 | 3.78 2.13–5.43 1.64–5.93 | 7.55 4.02–11.09 2.98–12.13 | 43% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 4.86 2.64–7.07 2.07–7.64 | 4.88 2.88–6.88 2.35–7.41 | 9.74 5.52–13.95 4.42–15.06 | 43% 44% |
| Possession % | 42.92 36.13–49.71 34.46–51.38 | 57.58 50.79–64.36 49.12–66.03 | — | 18% 79% |
| Passes | 381 314–449 296–467 | 511 444–577 427–595 | 892 758–1026 723–1061 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.67 61.64–69.70 60.35–70.99 | 78.01 73.68–82.33 72.38–83.64 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 10.84 8.00–13.68 7.25–14.43 | 12.66 9.72–15.61 8.97–16.36 | 23.50 17.72–29.29 16.22–30.79 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.90–3.22 0.60–3.53 | 1.60 0.50–2.69 0.22–2.98 | 3.66 1.41–5.92 0.82–6.50 | 49% 21% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.93 0.57–3.20 | 2.36 1.24–3.49 0.94–3.78 | 4.25 2.07–6.43 1.51–6.98 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.53–4.40 1.14–4.79 | 2.86 1.31–4.42 0.88–4.85 | 5.83 2.84–8.82 2.03–9.64 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.