Premier League·Regular Season - 13·
Premier League·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.062.85safe0.82–2.750.21–1.921.03–4.67safer0.57–3.000.00–2.150.55–5.15
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.343.839.17safe3.47–7.202.09–5.575.56–12.77safer2.98–7.691.62–6.044.61–13.73
Total shots
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5311.5026.03safe10.60–18.457.93–15.0618.54–33.51safer9.51–19.546.97–16.0216.49–35.56
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.977.8117.78safe7.02–12.915.13–10.4912.16–23.40safer6.20–13.744.39–11.2310.59–24.97
Blocked shots
62%
13%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.453.117.56safe2.57–6.331.46–4.774.03–11.10safer2.02–6.870.97–5.262.99–12.13
Corners
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction6.114.6310.74safe3.90–8.332.63–6.636.53–14.95safer3.33–8.902.09–7.165.42–16.06
Possession %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction55.1144.69safe48.32–61.9037.90–51.47safer46.65–63.5736.23–53.14
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction523403926safe456–590337–469793–1060safer438–609319–487757–1096
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction71.9670.74safe67.93–75.9966.41–75.06safer66.64–77.2865.10–76.37
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1411.9022.04safe7.30–12.988.96–14.8516.26–27.83safer6.55–13.738.21–15.6014.76–29.33
Offsides
31%
24%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.683.05safe0.21–2.530.59–2.770.80–5.31safer0.00–2.840.30–3.060.21–5.90
Yellow cards
37%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.893.65safe0.71–2.810.76–3.021.47–5.83safer0.45–3.080.47–3.310.91–6.38
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.653.506.16safe1.22–4.091.95–5.063.16–9.15safer0.83–4.481.52–5.482.35–9.96
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.78 0.82–2.75 0.57–3.00 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.55–5.15 | 54% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.34 3.47–7.20 2.98–7.69 | 3.83 2.09–5.57 1.62–6.04 | 9.17 5.56–12.77 4.61–13.73 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 14.53 10.60–18.45 9.51–19.54 | 11.50 7.93–15.06 6.97–16.02 | 26.03 18.54–33.51 16.49–35.56 | 69% 24% |
| Shots in box | 9.97 7.02–12.91 6.20–13.74 | 7.81 5.13–10.49 4.39–11.23 | 17.78 12.16–23.40 10.59–24.97 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.45 2.57–6.33 2.02–6.87 | 3.11 1.46–4.77 0.97–5.26 | 7.56 4.03–11.10 2.99–12.13 | 62% 13% 25% |
| Corners | 6.11 3.90–8.33 3.33–8.90 | 4.63 2.63–6.63 2.09–7.16 | 10.74 6.53–14.95 5.42–16.06 | 62% 27% |
| Possession % | 55.11 48.32–61.90 46.65–63.57 | 44.69 37.90–51.47 36.23–53.14 | — | 71% 25% |
| Passes | 523 456–590 438–609 | 403 337–469 319–487 | 926 793–1060 757–1096 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.96 67.93–75.99 66.64–77.28 | 70.74 66.41–75.06 65.10–76.37 | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 10.14 7.30–12.98 6.55–13.73 | 11.90 8.96–14.85 8.21–15.60 | 22.04 16.26–27.83 14.76–29.33 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.37 0.21–2.53 0.00–2.84 | 1.68 0.59–2.77 0.30–3.06 | 3.05 0.80–5.31 0.21–5.90 | 31% 24% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.45–3.08 | 1.89 0.76–3.02 0.47–3.31 | 3.65 1.47–5.83 0.91–6.38 | 37% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.22–4.09 0.83–4.48 | 3.50 1.95–5.06 1.52–5.48 | 6.16 3.16–9.15 2.35–9.96 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+