Premier League·Regular Season - 13·
Premier League·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
27%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.292.41safe0.16–2.100.43–2.140.59–4.24safer0.00–2.350.20–2.370.11–4.72
Shots on target
34%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.864.508.36safe1.99–5.722.76–6.244.75–11.96safer1.50–6.212.29–6.713.80–12.92
Total shots
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7213.1224.85safe7.80–15.659.56–16.6917.36–32.33safer6.71–16.748.60–17.6515.31–34.38
Shots in box
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction7.909.0316.93safe4.96–10.846.35–11.7111.30–22.55safer4.13–11.675.61–12.459.74–24.12
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.043.836.87safe1.16–4.922.17–5.483.33–10.40safer0.61–5.471.68–5.972.30–11.44
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.485.239.71safe2.27–6.703.23–7.235.50–13.93safer1.69–7.272.70–7.774.39–15.03
Possession %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction44.0657.23safe37.27–50.8550.44–64.01safer35.60–52.5248.77–65.68
Passes
20%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction355455810safe288–422388–521676–943safer270–440371–539640–979
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction63.1671.99safe59.13–67.1867.66–76.31safer57.83–68.4866.36–77.62
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2311.3222.55safe8.39–14.078.38–14.2716.77–28.33safer7.63–14.827.63–15.0215.26–29.84
Offsides
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.213.85safe0.49–2.811.11–3.301.60–6.11safer0.19–3.110.82–3.591.01–6.70
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.903.89safe0.94–3.040.77–3.031.72–6.07safer0.68–3.310.48–3.321.16–6.63
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.972.565.53safe1.54–4.411.00–4.112.54–8.52safer1.15–4.800.58–4.541.73–9.34
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.16–2.10 0.00–2.35 | 1.29 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.41 0.59–4.24 0.11–4.72 | 32% 27% 40% |
| Shots on target | 3.86 1.99–5.72 1.50–6.21 | 4.50 2.76–6.24 2.29–6.71 | 8.36 4.75–11.96 3.80–12.92 | 34% 14% 52% |
| Total shots | 11.72 7.80–15.65 6.71–16.74 | 13.12 9.56–16.69 8.60–17.65 | 24.85 17.36–32.33 15.31–34.38 | 35% 57% |
| Shots in box | 7.90 4.96–10.84 4.13–11.67 | 9.03 6.35–11.71 5.61–12.45 | 16.93 11.30–22.55 9.74–24.12 | 35% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.04 1.16–4.92 0.61–5.47 | 3.83 2.17–5.48 1.68–5.97 | 6.87 3.33–10.40 2.30–11.44 | 31% 15% 54% |
| Corners | 4.48 2.27–6.70 1.69–7.27 | 5.23 3.23–7.23 2.70–7.77 | 9.71 5.50–13.93 4.39–15.03 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 44.06 37.27–50.85 35.60–52.52 | 57.23 50.44–64.01 48.77–65.68 | — | 20% 76% |
| Passes | 355 288–422 270–440 | 455 388–521 371–539 | 810 676–943 640–979 | 20% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.16 59.13–67.18 57.83–68.48 | 71.99 67.66–76.31 66.36–77.62 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 11.23 8.39–14.07 7.63–14.82 | 11.32 8.38–14.27 7.63–15.02 | 22.55 16.77–28.33 15.26–29.84 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.19–3.11 | 2.21 1.11–3.30 0.82–3.59 | 3.85 1.60–6.11 1.01–6.70 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 0.94–3.04 0.68–3.31 | 1.90 0.77–3.03 0.48–3.32 | 3.89 1.72–6.07 1.16–6.63 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.54–4.41 1.15–4.80 | 2.56 1.00–4.11 0.58–4.54 | 5.53 2.54–8.52 1.73–9.34 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+