Premier League·Regular Season - 13·
Premier League·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.390.853.24safe1.42–3.360.00–1.711.42–5.06safer1.17–3.610.00–1.930.94–5.54
Shots on target
82%
homeawaytotalprediction6.613.289.89safe4.75–8.471.53–5.026.28–13.49safer4.26–8.961.07–5.485.33–14.45
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction18.407.8626.26safe14.47–22.324.30–11.4218.77–33.74safer13.38–23.413.34–12.3816.72–35.80
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction11.976.2018.17safe9.03–14.913.52–8.8812.55–23.79safer8.20–15.742.78–9.6210.98–25.36
Blocked shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction5.452.077.53safe3.57–7.330.42–3.733.99–11.06safer3.03–7.880.00–4.222.95–12.10
Corners
86%
homeawaytotalprediction7.333.4010.73safe5.12–9.541.40–5.406.51–14.94safer4.54–10.120.86–5.935.41–16.05
Possession %
98%
homeawayprediction67.7231.29safe60.93–74.5124.50–38.07safer59.26–76.1822.83–39.74
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction678305983safe611–746238–371849–1117safer593–764221–388814–1152
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction81.8569.04safe77.82–85.8864.72–73.37safer76.53–87.1763.41–74.68
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1511.0621.21safe7.31–12.988.12–14.0015.43–26.99safer6.55–13.747.37–14.7513.92–28.49
Offsides
28%
18%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.694.65safe0.80–3.121.60–3.792.40–6.91safer0.50–3.421.31–4.071.81–7.50
Yellow cards
24%
22%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.272.013.27safe0.22–2.320.88–3.141.10–5.45safer0.00–2.580.59–3.430.54–6.01
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.360.00–0.390.00–0.75
GK saves
17%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.183.986.16safe0.74–3.622.43–5.543.17–9.15safer0.36–4.002.00–5.962.36–9.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.39 1.42–3.36 1.17–3.61 | 0.85 0.00–1.71 0.00–1.93 | 3.24 1.42–5.06 0.94–5.54 | 71% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.61 4.75–8.47 4.26–8.96 | 3.28 1.53–5.02 1.07–5.48 | 9.89 6.28–13.49 5.33–14.45 | 82% |
| Total shots | 18.40 14.47–22.32 13.38–23.41 | 7.86 4.30–11.42 3.34–12.38 | 26.26 18.77–33.74 16.72–35.80 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 11.97 9.03–14.91 8.20–15.74 | 6.20 3.52–8.88 2.78–9.62 | 18.17 12.55–23.79 10.98–25.36 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 5.45 3.57–7.33 3.03–7.88 | 2.07 0.42–3.73 0.00–4.22 | 7.53 3.99–11.06 2.95–12.10 | 86% |
| Corners | 7.33 5.12–9.54 4.54–10.12 | 3.40 1.40–5.40 0.86–5.93 | 10.73 6.51–14.94 5.41–16.05 | 86% |
| Possession % | 67.72 60.93–74.51 59.26–76.18 | 31.29 24.50–38.07 22.83–39.74 | — | 98% |
| Passes | 678 611–746 593–764 | 305 238–371 221–388 | 983 849–1117 814–1152 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.85 77.82–85.88 76.53–87.17 | 69.04 64.72–73.37 63.41–74.68 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 10.15 7.31–12.98 6.55–13.74 | 11.06 8.12–14.00 7.37–14.75 | 21.21 15.43–26.99 13.92–28.49 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.50–3.42 | 2.69 1.60–3.79 1.31–4.07 | 4.65 2.40–6.91 1.81–7.50 | 28% 18% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 1.27 0.22–2.32 0.00–2.58 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 3.27 1.10–5.45 0.54–6.01 | 24% 22% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.18 0.74–3.62 0.36–4.00 | 3.98 2.43–5.54 2.00–5.96 | 6.16 3.17–9.15 2.36–9.97 | 17% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.