Premier League·Regular Season - 13·
Premier League·Regular Season - 13·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.732.92safe0.22–2.160.87–2.581.10–4.74safer0.00–2.410.65–2.810.62–5.22
Shots on target
21%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.785.789.56safe1.92–5.644.03–7.525.95–13.16safer1.43–6.133.57–7.985.00–14.12
Total shots
19%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0816.2028.29safe8.16–16.0112.64–19.7720.80–35.77safer7.07–17.1011.68–20.7318.75–37.82
Shots in box
20%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction7.6310.6518.28safe4.68–10.577.97–13.3312.65–23.90safer3.86–11.407.23–14.0711.09–25.47
Blocked shots
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.965.529.48safe2.08–5.843.86–7.175.94–13.01safer1.53–6.393.37–7.664.90–14.05
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.885.3410.22safe2.67–7.103.34–7.346.01–14.44safer2.10–7.672.81–7.874.90–15.54
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction45.1055.63safe38.31–51.8948.85–62.42safer36.64–53.5647.17–64.09
Passes
25%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction445524969safe378–512458–591836–1103safer360–530440–608800–1139
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction69.6079.24safe65.57–73.6374.91–83.56safer64.28–74.9273.60–84.87
Fouls
47%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction10.179.9620.13safe7.34–13.017.02–12.9014.35–25.92safer6.58–13.776.27–13.6512.85–27.42
Offsides
41%
23%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.563.26safe0.54–2.860.47–2.651.01–5.52safer0.24–3.160.18–2.940.42–6.11
Yellow cards
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.633.30safe0.62–2.720.50–2.761.12–5.48safer0.35–2.980.21–3.050.57–6.04
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
62%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.732.486.21safe2.29–5.160.93–4.043.22–9.20safer1.90–5.550.50–4.462.40–10.01
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.73 0.87–2.58 0.65–2.81 | 2.92 1.10–4.74 0.62–5.22 | 26% 24% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.78 1.92–5.64 1.43–6.13 | 5.78 4.03–7.52 3.57–7.98 | 9.56 5.95–13.16 5.00–14.12 | 21% 69% |
| Total shots | 12.08 8.16–16.01 7.07–17.10 | 16.20 12.64–19.77 11.68–20.73 | 28.29 20.80–35.77 18.75–37.82 | 19% 75% |
| Shots in box | 7.63 4.68–10.57 3.86–11.40 | 10.65 7.97–13.33 7.23–14.07 | 18.28 12.65–23.90 11.09–25.47 | 20% 72% |
| Blocked shots | 3.96 2.08–5.84 1.53–6.39 | 5.52 3.86–7.17 3.37–7.66 | 9.48 5.94–13.01 4.90–14.05 | 25% 63% |
| Corners | 4.88 2.67–7.10 2.10–7.67 | 5.34 3.34–7.34 2.81–7.87 | 10.22 6.01–14.44 4.90–15.54 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 45.10 38.31–51.89 36.64–53.56 | 55.63 48.85–62.42 47.17–64.09 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 445 378–512 360–530 | 524 458–591 440–608 | 969 836–1103 800–1139 | 25% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.60 65.57–73.63 64.28–74.92 | 79.24 74.91–83.56 73.60–84.87 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 10.17 7.34–13.01 6.58–13.77 | 9.96 7.02–12.90 6.27–13.65 | 20.13 14.35–25.92 12.85–27.42 | 47% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.54–2.86 0.24–3.16 | 1.56 0.47–2.65 0.18–2.94 | 3.26 1.01–5.52 0.42–6.11 | 41% 23% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.62–2.72 0.35–2.98 | 1.63 0.50–2.76 0.21–3.05 | 3.30 1.12–5.48 0.57–6.04 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 3.73 2.29–5.16 1.90–5.55 | 2.48 0.93–4.04 0.50–4.46 | 6.21 3.22–9.20 2.40–10.01 | 62% 15% 24% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.