Premier League·Regular Season - 14·
Premier League·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.661.332.99safe0.69–2.620.48–2.181.16–4.81safer0.44–2.870.25–2.410.68–5.29
Shots on target
55%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.064.209.26safe3.19–6.922.46–5.945.65–12.86safer2.70–7.411.99–6.414.70–13.82
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2612.2026.47safe10.34–18.198.64–15.7718.98–33.95safer9.25–19.287.68–16.7216.93–36.01
Shots in box
52%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction9.238.4817.71safe6.29–12.175.80–11.1612.08–23.33safer5.46–13.005.06–11.8910.52–24.90
Blocked shots
65%
13%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.172.656.82safe2.29–6.061.00–4.303.29–10.36safer1.75–6.600.51–4.802.25–11.39
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.524.9210.44safe3.30–7.732.92–6.926.22–14.65safer2.73–8.302.39–7.455.12–15.76
Possession %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction52.5447.71safe45.75–59.3340.93–54.50safer44.08–61.0039.26–56.17
Passes
71%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction481416898safe414–549350–483764–1031safer396–567332–500728–1067
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction70.5370.12safe66.50–74.5665.80–74.45safer65.21–75.8564.49–75.76
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6711.8922.55safe7.83–13.508.94–14.8316.77–28.34safer7.07–14.268.19–15.5815.27–29.84
Offsides
80%
homeawaytotalprediction1.293.624.91safe0.13–2.452.53–4.712.66–7.17safer0.00–2.752.24–5.002.07–7.76
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.083.63safe0.50–2.600.95–3.211.45–5.81safer0.24–2.870.66–3.500.89–6.36
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.260.00–0.51safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
33%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.733.276.00safe1.29–4.161.72–4.833.01–8.99safer0.91–4.551.29–5.252.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.66 0.69–2.62 0.44–2.87 | 1.33 0.48–2.18 0.25–2.41 | 2.99 1.16–4.81 0.68–5.29 | 45% 24% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.06 3.19–6.92 2.70–7.41 | 4.20 2.46–5.94 1.99–6.41 | 9.26 5.65–12.86 4.70–13.82 | 55% 33% |
| Total shots | 14.26 10.34–18.19 9.25–19.28 | 12.20 8.64–15.77 7.68–16.72 | 26.47 18.98–33.95 16.93–36.01 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 9.23 6.29–12.17 5.46–13.00 | 8.48 5.80–11.16 5.06–11.89 | 17.71 12.08–23.33 10.52–24.90 | 52% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.29–6.06 1.75–6.60 | 2.65 1.00–4.30 0.51–4.80 | 6.82 3.29–10.36 2.25–11.39 | 65% 13% 22% |
| Corners | 5.52 3.30–7.73 2.73–8.30 | 4.92 2.92–6.92 2.39–7.45 | 10.44 6.22–14.65 5.12–15.76 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 52.54 45.75–59.33 44.08–61.00 | 47.71 40.93–54.50 39.26–56.17 | — | 59% 37% |
| Passes | 481 414–549 396–567 | 416 350–483 332–500 | 898 764–1031 728–1067 | 71% 29% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.53 66.50–74.56 65.21–75.85 | 70.12 65.80–74.45 64.49–75.76 | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 10.67 7.83–13.50 7.07–14.26 | 11.89 8.94–14.83 8.19–15.58 | 22.55 16.77–28.34 15.27–29.84 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.29 0.13–2.45 0.00–2.75 | 3.62 2.53–4.71 2.24–5.00 | 4.91 2.66–7.17 2.07–7.76 | 80% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.24–2.87 | 2.08 0.95–3.21 0.66–3.50 | 3.63 1.45–5.81 0.89–6.36 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.29–4.16 0.91–4.55 | 3.27 1.72–4.83 1.29–5.25 | 6.00 3.01–8.99 2.20–9.81 | 33% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+