Premier League·Regular Season - 14·
Premier League·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
26%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.500.952.45safe0.53–2.470.10–1.800.63–4.27safer0.28–2.720.00–2.030.15–4.75
Shots on target
68%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.053.198.25safe3.19–6.921.45–4.944.64–11.85safer2.70–7.410.98–5.403.69–12.81
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction15.949.0725.01safe12.02–19.875.50–12.6317.52–32.49safer10.93–20.964.54–13.5915.47–34.55
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction9.935.7915.73safe6.99–12.873.11–8.4810.10–21.35safer6.16–13.702.38–9.218.54–22.92
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.732.847.58safe2.85–6.621.19–4.504.04–11.11safer2.31–7.160.70–4.993.01–12.15
Corners
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.393.7410.13safe4.17–8.601.74–5.745.91–14.34safer3.60–9.181.21–6.274.81–15.45
Possession %
91%
homeawayprediction61.0937.73safe54.30–67.8830.95–44.52safer52.63–69.5529.28–46.19
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction547321868safe479–614255–388734–1002safer461–632237–405699–1037
Pass accuracy %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction72.0866.14safe68.05–76.1161.82–70.46safer66.76–77.4160.51–71.77
Fouls
29%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2312.2922.52safe7.39–13.079.34–15.2316.74–28.30safer6.64–13.828.59–15.9815.23–29.81
Offsides
51%
21%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.453.48safe0.87–3.190.36–2.541.23–5.73safer0.57–3.490.07–2.830.64–6.32
Yellow cards
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.544.28safe0.69–2.791.41–3.672.10–6.46safer0.42–3.051.12–3.961.54–7.01
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
22%
15%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.193.525.71safe0.76–3.631.97–5.082.72–8.71safer0.37–4.021.54–5.501.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.50 0.53–2.47 0.28–2.72 | 0.95 0.10–1.80 0.00–2.03 | 2.45 0.63–4.27 0.15–4.75 | 50% 26% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.05 3.19–6.92 2.70–7.41 | 3.19 1.45–4.94 0.98–5.40 | 8.25 4.64–11.85 3.69–12.81 | 68% 20% |
| Total shots | 15.94 12.02–19.87 10.93–20.96 | 9.07 5.50–12.63 4.54–13.59 | 25.01 17.52–32.49 15.47–34.55 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 9.93 6.99–12.87 6.16–13.70 | 5.79 3.11–8.48 2.38–9.21 | 15.73 10.10–21.35 8.54–22.92 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 4.73 2.85–6.62 2.31–7.16 | 2.84 1.19–4.50 0.70–4.99 | 7.58 4.04–11.11 3.01–12.15 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.39 4.17–8.60 3.60–9.18 | 3.74 1.74–5.74 1.21–6.27 | 10.13 5.91–14.34 4.81–15.45 | 75% 16% |
| Possession % | 61.09 54.30–67.88 52.63–69.55 | 37.73 30.95–44.52 29.28–46.19 | — | 91% |
| Passes | 547 479–614 461–632 | 321 255–388 237–405 | 868 734–1002 699–1037 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.08 68.05–76.11 66.76–77.41 | 66.14 61.82–70.46 60.51–71.77 | — | 76% 20% |
| Fouls | 10.23 7.39–13.07 6.64–13.82 | 12.29 9.34–15.23 8.59–15.98 | 22.52 16.74–28.30 15.23–29.81 | 29% 63% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.87–3.19 0.57–3.49 | 1.45 0.36–2.54 0.07–2.83 | 3.48 1.23–5.73 0.64–6.32 | 51% 21% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.79 0.42–3.05 | 2.54 1.41–3.67 1.12–3.96 | 4.28 2.10–6.46 1.54–7.01 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.19 0.76–3.63 0.37–4.02 | 3.52 1.97–5.08 1.54–5.50 | 5.71 2.72–8.71 1.91–9.52 | 22% 15% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.