Premier League·Regular Season - 14·
Premier League·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
22%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.032.93safe0.93–2.870.18–1.891.11–4.75safer0.68–3.120.00–2.110.63–5.23
Shots on target
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction6.143.549.68safe4.27–8.001.80–5.296.07–13.28safer3.78–8.491.34–5.755.12–14.24
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction16.2910.5726.86safe12.37–20.217.01–14.1319.37–34.35safer11.27–21.316.05–15.0917.32–36.40
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction11.757.2118.96safe8.81–14.694.53–9.8913.34–24.58safer7.98–15.523.79–10.6311.77–26.15
Blocked shots
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.443.198.63safe3.56–7.331.54–4.845.10–12.17safer3.02–7.871.04–5.334.06–13.20
Corners
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.494.0410.52safe4.27–8.702.04–6.046.31–14.74safer3.70–9.271.51–6.575.20–15.85
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.2640.47safe52.47–66.0633.69–47.26safer50.80–67.7232.01–48.93
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction566373938safe498–633306–439805–1072safer480–651289–457769–1108
Pass accuracy %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction76.1969.00safe72.16–80.2264.67–73.32safer70.87–81.5163.36–74.63
Fouls
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction9.7310.9620.69safe6.89–12.578.02–13.9114.91–26.48safer6.14–13.337.27–14.6513.41–27.98
Offsides
52%
20%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.251.623.87safe1.09–3.410.52–2.711.62–6.12safer0.79–3.710.24–3.001.03–6.71
Yellow cards
23%
23%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.873.01safe0.09–2.180.74–3.000.83–5.19safer0.00–2.450.45–3.290.27–5.74
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.390.00–0.74
GK saves
20%
13%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.484.116.59safe1.04–3.912.56–5.673.60–9.59safer0.65–4.302.13–6.102.79–10.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.90 0.93–2.87 0.68–3.12 | 1.03 0.18–1.89 0.00–2.11 | 2.93 1.11–4.75 0.63–5.23 | 58% 22% 20% |
| Shots on target | 6.14 4.27–8.00 3.78–8.49 | 3.54 1.80–5.29 1.34–5.75 | 9.68 6.07–13.28 5.12–14.24 | 75% 16% |
| Total shots | 16.29 12.37–20.21 11.27–21.31 | 10.57 7.01–14.13 6.05–15.09 | 26.86 19.37–34.35 17.32–36.40 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 11.75 8.81–14.69 7.98–15.52 | 7.21 4.53–9.89 3.79–10.63 | 18.96 13.34–24.58 11.77–26.15 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 5.44 3.56–7.33 3.02–7.87 | 3.19 1.54–4.84 1.04–5.33 | 8.63 5.10–12.17 4.06–13.20 | 73% 17% |
| Corners | 6.49 4.27–8.70 3.70–9.27 | 4.04 2.04–6.04 1.51–6.57 | 10.52 6.31–14.74 5.20–15.85 | 73% 18% |
| Possession % | 59.26 52.47–66.06 50.80–67.72 | 40.47 33.69–47.26 32.01–48.93 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 566 498–633 480–651 | 373 306–439 289–457 | 938 805–1072 769–1108 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.19 72.16–80.22 70.87–81.51 | 69.00 64.67–73.32 63.36–74.63 | — | 81% 16% |
| Fouls | 9.73 6.89–12.57 6.14–13.33 | 10.96 8.02–13.91 7.27–14.65 | 20.69 14.91–26.48 13.41–27.98 | 35% 56% |
| Offsides | 2.25 1.09–3.41 0.79–3.71 | 1.62 0.52–2.71 0.24–3.00 | 3.87 1.62–6.12 1.03–6.71 | 52% 20% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.14 0.09–2.18 0.00–2.45 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 3.01 0.83–5.19 0.27–5.74 | 23% 23% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.74 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.04–3.91 0.65–4.30 | 4.11 2.56–5.67 2.13–6.10 | 6.59 3.60–9.59 2.79–10.40 | 20% 13% 67% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.