Premier League·Regular Season - 14·
Premier League·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
26%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.372.63safe0.29–2.230.52–2.230.81–4.46safer0.04–2.480.29–2.460.33–4.93
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.874.238.10safe2.01–5.732.49–5.974.49–11.70safer1.52–6.222.02–6.443.54–12.66
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8113.3726.18safe8.88–16.739.81–16.9418.69–33.67safer7.79–17.828.85–17.8916.64–35.72
Shots in box
33%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction8.079.3417.41safe5.12–11.016.66–12.0311.79–23.03safer4.29–11.845.93–12.7610.22–24.60
Blocked shots
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.024.398.41safe2.14–5.902.74–6.054.88–11.95safer1.59–6.442.25–6.543.84–12.98
Corners
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.474.8110.28safe3.26–7.692.81–6.816.07–14.49safer2.68–8.262.28–7.344.96–15.60
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction53.8646.08safe47.07–60.6539.30–52.87safer45.40–62.3237.63–54.54
Passes
76%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction460374834safe393–527307–440700–967safer375–546290–458664–1003
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction69.6069.91safe65.57–73.6365.59–74.24safer64.28–74.9264.28–75.55
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0812.5124.59safe9.24–14.929.56–15.4518.80–30.37safer8.49–15.678.81–16.2017.30–31.87
Offsides
32%
24%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.632.97safe0.18–2.500.53–2.720.72–5.22safer0.00–2.800.25–3.010.13–5.81
Yellow cards
33%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.194.05safe0.81–2.901.06–3.321.87–6.23safer0.54–3.170.77–3.611.31–6.78
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
46%
18%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.832.565.39safe1.40–4.271.00–4.122.40–8.38safer1.01–4.660.58–4.541.59–9.20
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.29–2.23 0.04–2.48 | 1.37 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 2.63 0.81–4.46 0.33–4.93 | 34% 26% 40% |
| Shots on target | 3.87 2.01–5.73 1.52–6.22 | 4.23 2.49–5.97 2.02–6.44 | 8.10 4.49–11.70 3.54–12.66 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.81 8.88–16.73 7.79–17.82 | 13.37 9.81–16.94 8.85–17.89 | 26.18 18.69–33.67 16.64–35.72 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 8.07 5.12–11.01 4.29–11.84 | 9.34 6.66–12.03 5.93–12.76 | 17.41 11.79–23.03 10.22–24.60 | 33% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 4.02 2.14–5.90 1.59–6.44 | 4.39 2.74–6.05 2.25–6.54 | 8.41 4.88–11.95 3.84–12.98 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Corners | 5.47 3.26–7.69 2.68–8.26 | 4.81 2.81–6.81 2.28–7.34 | 10.28 6.07–14.49 4.96–15.60 | 52% 36% |
| Possession % | 53.86 47.07–60.65 45.40–62.32 | 46.08 39.30–52.87 37.63–54.54 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 460 393–527 375–546 | 374 307–440 290–458 | 834 700–967 664–1003 | 76% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.60 65.57–73.63 64.28–74.92 | 69.91 65.59–74.24 64.28–75.55 | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 12.08 9.24–14.92 8.49–15.67 | 12.51 9.56–15.45 8.81–16.20 | 24.59 18.80–30.37 17.30–31.87 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.34 0.18–2.50 0.00–2.80 | 1.63 0.53–2.72 0.25–3.01 | 2.97 0.72–5.22 0.13–5.81 | 32% 24% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.81–2.90 0.54–3.17 | 2.19 1.06–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 4.05 1.87–6.23 1.31–6.78 | 33% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.83 1.40–4.27 1.01–4.66 | 2.56 1.00–4.12 0.58–4.54 | 5.39 2.40–8.38 1.59–9.20 | 46% 18% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+