Premier League·Regular Season - 14·
Premier League·Regular Season - 14·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.442.68safe0.27–2.210.58–2.290.86–4.50safer0.02–2.460.36–2.520.38–4.98
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.274.488.74safe2.41–6.132.73–6.225.14–12.35safer1.92–6.622.27–6.684.18–13.31
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0912.5325.61safe9.16–17.018.97–16.0918.13–33.10safer8.07–18.108.01–17.0516.08–35.15
Shots in box
42%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction8.458.7417.19safe5.51–11.406.06–11.4211.57–22.82safer4.68–12.235.32–12.1610.00–24.38
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.933.847.77safe2.05–5.812.19–5.494.23–11.30safer1.50–6.351.69–5.993.20–12.34
Corners
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.814.809.62safe2.60–7.032.80–6.805.40–13.83safer2.03–7.602.27–7.344.30–14.94
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction39.8159.98safe33.02–46.6053.19–66.76safer31.35–48.2751.52–68.44
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction349514863safe282–416447–580729–996safer263–434430–598693–1032
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction64.5478.34safe60.51–68.5774.02–82.66safer59.22–69.8672.71–83.97
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5312.0723.60safe8.69–14.379.13–15.0217.82–29.38safer7.93–15.128.38–15.7716.31–30.89
Offsides
40%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.923.88safe0.81–3.130.82–3.011.63–6.14safer0.51–3.430.53–3.301.04–6.73
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.204.04safe0.79–2.891.07–3.331.87–6.22safer0.53–3.160.78–3.621.31–6.78
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.952.845.78safe1.51–4.381.28–4.392.79–8.77safer1.12–4.770.85–4.821.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.44 0.58–2.29 0.36–2.52 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.38–4.98 | 33% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.27 2.41–6.13 1.92–6.62 | 4.48 2.73–6.22 2.27–6.68 | 8.74 5.14–12.35 4.18–13.31 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 13.09 9.16–17.01 8.07–18.10 | 12.53 8.97–16.09 8.01–17.05 | 25.61 18.13–33.10 16.08–35.15 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.45 5.51–11.40 4.68–12.23 | 8.74 6.06–11.42 5.32–12.16 | 17.19 11.57–22.82 10.00–24.38 | 42% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 3.93 2.05–5.81 1.50–6.35 | 3.84 2.19–5.49 1.69–5.99 | 7.77 4.23–11.30 3.20–12.34 | 44% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 4.81 2.60–7.03 2.03–7.60 | 4.80 2.80–6.80 2.27–7.34 | 9.62 5.40–13.83 4.30–14.94 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 39.81 33.02–46.60 31.35–48.27 | 59.98 53.19–66.76 51.52–68.44 | — | 87% |
| Passes | 349 282–416 263–434 | 514 447–580 430–598 | 863 729–996 693–1032 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.54 60.51–68.57 59.22–69.86 | 78.34 74.02–82.66 72.71–83.97 | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 11.53 8.69–14.37 7.93–15.12 | 12.07 9.13–15.02 8.38–15.77 | 23.60 17.82–29.38 16.31–30.89 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.92 0.82–3.01 0.53–3.30 | 3.88 1.63–6.14 1.04–6.73 | 40% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.89 0.53–3.16 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 4.04 1.87–6.22 1.31–6.78 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.51–4.38 1.12–4.77 | 2.84 1.28–4.39 0.85–4.82 | 5.78 2.79–8.77 1.98–9.59 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+