Premier League·Regular Season - 15·
Premier League·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
63%
21%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.000.912.91safe1.03–2.970.06–1.771.09–4.74safer0.78–3.220.00–2.000.61–5.22
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.533.448.97safe3.67–7.391.69–5.185.36–12.57safer3.18–7.881.23–5.644.41–13.53
Total shots
82%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4510.3825.82safe11.52–19.376.81–13.9418.34–33.31safer10.43–20.465.86–14.9016.28–35.36
Shots in box
81%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction10.676.5917.27safe7.73–13.623.91–9.2711.64–22.89safer6.90–14.443.17–10.0110.08–24.46
Blocked shots
63%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.523.067.58safe2.63–6.401.41–4.714.04–11.11safer2.09–6.940.91–5.203.01–12.15
Corners
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.243.369.60safe4.02–8.451.36–5.365.38–13.81safer3.45–9.020.83–5.894.28–14.92
Possession %
83%
15%
homeawayprediction58.6541.80safe51.86–65.4435.02–48.59safer50.19–67.1133.35–50.26
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction520367887safe453–587301–433753–1021safer435–605283–451718–1056
Pass accuracy %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction74.2070.67safe70.17–78.2366.34–74.99safer68.87–79.5265.03–76.30
Fouls
28%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3413.7025.03safe8.50–14.1810.75–16.6419.25–30.82safer7.74–14.9310.00–17.3917.75–32.32
Offsides
49%
23%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.303.07safe0.61–2.930.20–2.390.82–5.32safer0.31–3.230.00–2.680.23–5.91
Yellow cards
25%
19%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.662.524.17safe0.61–2.711.39–3.652.00–6.35safer0.34–2.971.10–3.941.44–6.91
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.100.16safe0.00–0.210.00–0.290.00–0.50safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.415.99safe1.14–4.011.86–4.973.00–8.98safer0.75–4.401.43–5.392.19–9.80
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.00 1.03–2.97 0.78–3.22 | 0.91 0.06–1.77 0.00–2.00 | 2.91 1.09–4.74 0.61–5.22 | 63% 21% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.53 3.67–7.39 3.18–7.88 | 3.44 1.69–5.18 1.23–5.64 | 8.97 5.36–12.57 4.41–13.53 | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 15.45 11.52–19.37 10.43–20.46 | 10.38 6.81–13.94 5.86–14.90 | 25.82 18.34–33.31 16.28–35.36 | 82% 14% |
| Shots in box | 10.67 7.73–13.62 6.90–14.44 | 6.59 3.91–9.27 3.17–10.01 | 17.27 11.64–22.89 10.08–24.46 | 81% 13% |
| Blocked shots | 4.52 2.63–6.40 2.09–6.94 | 3.06 1.41–4.71 0.91–5.20 | 7.58 4.04–11.11 3.01–12.15 | 63% 24% |
| Corners | 6.24 4.02–8.45 3.45–9.02 | 3.36 1.36–5.36 0.83–5.89 | 9.60 5.38–13.81 4.28–14.92 | 78% 13% |
| Possession % | 58.65 51.86–65.44 50.19–67.11 | 41.80 35.02–48.59 33.35–50.26 | — | 83% 15% |
| Passes | 520 453–587 435–605 | 367 301–433 283–451 | 887 753–1021 718–1056 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.20 70.17–78.23 68.87–79.52 | 70.67 66.34–74.99 65.03–76.30 | — | 65% 30% |
| Fouls | 11.34 8.50–14.18 7.74–14.93 | 13.70 10.75–16.64 10.00–17.39 | 25.03 19.25–30.82 17.75–32.32 | 28% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.31–3.23 | 1.30 0.20–2.39 0.00–2.68 | 3.07 0.82–5.32 0.23–5.91 | 49% 23% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.66 0.61–2.71 0.34–2.97 | 2.52 1.39–3.65 1.10–3.94 | 4.17 2.00–6.35 1.44–6.91 | 25% 19% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.41 1.86–4.97 1.43–5.39 | 5.99 3.00–8.98 2.19–9.80 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+