Premier League·Regular Season - 15·
Premier League·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.292.59safe0.33–2.270.43–2.140.77–4.41safer0.08–2.520.20–2.370.29–4.89
Shots on target
44%
14%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.534.438.96safe2.67–6.392.69–6.185.36–12.57safer2.18–6.882.23–6.644.40–13.52
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9912.4325.42safe9.07–16.928.87–15.9917.93–32.91safer7.98–18.017.91–16.9515.88–34.96
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction9.028.7217.73safe6.07–11.966.04–11.4012.11–23.36safer5.24–12.795.30–12.1310.54–24.92
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.583.837.41safe1.70–5.462.18–5.493.88–10.95safer1.15–6.011.69–5.982.84–11.98
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.275.1510.42safe3.05–7.483.15–7.156.21–14.63safer2.48–8.052.62–7.695.10–15.74
Possession %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction46.3754.41safe39.58–53.1647.63–61.20safer37.91–54.8345.96–62.87
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction427486913safe360–494420–553780–1047safer342–512402–570744–1083
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction67.4773.71safe63.44–71.5069.39–78.04safer62.15–72.7968.08–79.34
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9911.3723.36safe9.15–14.828.42–14.3117.57–29.14safer8.39–15.587.68–15.0616.07–30.64
Offsides
49%
18%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.742.285.02safe1.58–3.901.19–3.382.77–7.28safer1.28–4.200.90–3.672.18–7.87
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.973.68safe0.66–2.760.84–3.101.50–5.86safer0.39–3.020.55–3.390.95–6.42
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.893.126.01safe1.45–4.321.56–4.673.01–9.00safer1.06–4.711.14–5.102.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.27 0.08–2.52 | 1.29 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.59 0.77–4.41 0.29–4.89 | 37% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.53 2.67–6.39 2.18–6.88 | 4.43 2.69–6.18 2.23–6.64 | 8.96 5.36–12.57 4.40–13.52 | 44% 14% 42% |
| Total shots | 12.99 9.07–16.92 7.98–18.01 | 12.43 8.87–15.99 7.91–16.95 | 25.42 17.93–32.91 15.88–34.96 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 9.02 6.07–11.96 5.24–12.79 | 8.72 6.04–11.40 5.30–12.13 | 17.73 12.11–23.36 10.54–24.92 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 1.70–5.46 1.15–6.01 | 3.83 2.18–5.49 1.69–5.98 | 7.41 3.88–10.95 2.84–11.98 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.05–7.48 2.48–8.05 | 5.15 3.15–7.15 2.62–7.69 | 10.42 6.21–14.63 5.10–15.74 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 46.37 39.58–53.16 37.91–54.83 | 54.41 47.63–61.20 45.96–62.87 | — | 30% 66% |
| Passes | 427 360–494 342–512 | 486 420–553 402–570 | 913 780–1047 744–1083 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.47 63.44–71.50 62.15–72.79 | 73.71 69.39–78.04 68.08–79.34 | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 11.99 9.15–14.82 8.39–15.58 | 11.37 8.42–14.31 7.68–15.06 | 23.36 17.57–29.14 16.07–30.64 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 2.74 1.58–3.90 1.28–4.20 | 2.28 1.19–3.38 0.90–3.67 | 5.02 2.77–7.28 2.18–7.87 | 49% 18% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.71 0.66–2.76 0.39–3.02 | 1.97 0.84–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 3.68 1.50–5.86 0.95–6.42 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.89 1.45–4.32 1.06–4.71 | 3.12 1.56–4.67 1.14–5.10 | 6.01 3.01–9.00 2.20–9.81 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+