Premier League·Regular Season - 15·
Premier League·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
24%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.632.89safe0.29–2.220.78–2.491.06–4.71safer0.03–2.470.55–2.720.58–5.19
Shots on target
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.985.229.20safe2.12–5.853.48–6.965.60–12.81safer1.63–6.343.01–7.434.64–13.76
Total shots
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7614.2026.96safe8.84–16.6910.64–17.7619.47–34.45safer7.75–17.789.68–18.7217.42–36.50
Shots in box
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction8.329.3417.66safe5.37–11.266.66–12.0212.04–23.28safer4.54–12.095.92–12.7610.47–24.85
Blocked shots
32%
13%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.924.748.66safe2.04–5.803.09–6.405.13–12.20safer1.49–6.342.60–6.894.09–13.23
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.9610.35safe3.18–7.612.96–6.966.14–14.56safer2.61–8.182.42–7.495.03–15.67
Possession %
23%
74%
homeawayprediction44.2956.06safe37.50–51.0849.27–62.84safer35.83–52.7547.60–64.52
Passes
21%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction441536977safe374–508470–602843–1111safer356–526452–620807–1146
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction66.7677.11safe62.73–70.7972.79–81.44safer61.43–72.0871.48–82.75
Fouls
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction10.099.8019.90safe7.26–12.936.86–12.7514.11–25.68safer6.50–13.696.11–13.4912.61–27.18
Offsides
49%
23%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.303.07safe0.61–2.930.21–2.390.82–5.33safer0.31–3.240.00–2.680.23–5.92
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.581.723.30safe0.53–2.630.59–2.851.12–5.47safer0.26–2.890.30–3.140.56–6.03
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.412.696.10safe1.98–4.851.14–4.253.11–9.10safer1.59–5.230.71–4.672.30–9.91
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.29–2.22 0.03–2.47 | 1.63 0.78–2.49 0.55–2.72 | 2.89 1.06–4.71 0.58–5.19 | 29% 24% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.98 2.12–5.85 1.63–6.34 | 5.22 3.48–6.96 3.01–7.43 | 9.20 5.60–12.81 4.64–13.76 | 28% 60% |
| Total shots | 12.76 8.84–16.69 7.75–17.78 | 14.20 10.64–17.76 9.68–18.72 | 26.96 19.47–34.45 17.42–36.50 | 35% 57% |
| Shots in box | 8.32 5.37–11.26 4.54–12.09 | 9.34 6.66–12.02 5.92–12.76 | 17.66 12.04–23.28 10.47–24.85 | 36% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 3.92 2.04–5.80 1.49–6.34 | 4.74 3.09–6.40 2.60–6.89 | 8.66 5.13–12.20 4.09–13.23 | 32% 13% 54% |
| Corners | 5.39 3.18–7.61 2.61–8.18 | 4.96 2.96–6.96 2.42–7.49 | 10.35 6.14–14.56 5.03–15.67 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 44.29 37.50–51.08 35.83–52.75 | 56.06 49.27–62.84 47.60–64.52 | — | 23% 74% |
| Passes | 441 374–508 356–526 | 536 470–602 452–620 | 977 843–1111 807–1146 | 21% 79% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.76 62.73–70.79 61.43–72.08 | 77.11 72.79–81.44 71.48–82.75 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 10.09 7.26–12.93 6.50–13.69 | 9.80 6.86–12.75 6.11–13.49 | 19.90 14.11–25.68 12.61–27.18 | 48% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.31–3.24 | 1.30 0.21–2.39 0.00–2.68 | 3.07 0.82–5.33 0.23–5.92 | 49% 23% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.26–2.89 | 1.72 0.59–2.85 0.30–3.14 | 3.30 1.12–5.47 0.56–6.03 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.41 1.98–4.85 1.59–5.23 | 2.69 1.14–4.25 0.71–4.67 | 6.10 3.11–9.10 2.30–9.91 | 53% 16% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.