Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.382.74safe0.39–2.330.52–2.230.92–4.56safer0.14–2.580.30–2.460.44–5.04
Shots on target
43%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.518.98safe2.60–6.332.77–6.255.37–12.58safer2.11–6.822.30–6.724.42–13.54
Total shots
59%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5811.9825.56safe9.66–17.518.41–15.5418.07–33.05safer8.57–18.607.45–16.5016.02–35.10
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.888.9817.85safe5.94–11.826.30–11.6612.23–23.48safer5.11–12.655.56–12.3910.66–25.04
Blocked shots
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.413.928.33safe2.53–6.292.27–5.584.80–11.87safer1.98–6.831.78–6.073.76–12.90
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.854.5810.43safe3.64–8.062.58–6.586.22–14.64safer3.06–8.642.04–7.115.11–15.75
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction56.3344.30safe49.53–63.1237.52–51.09safer47.87–64.7935.84–52.76
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction530408939safe463–598342–475805–1072safer445–616324–492769–1108
Pass accuracy %
55%
39%
homeawayprediction72.6171.04safe68.58–76.6466.72–75.36safer67.28–77.9365.41–76.67
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1911.3821.57safe7.35–13.028.44–14.3315.79–27.35safer6.59–13.787.69–15.0714.28–28.85
Offsides
34%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.973.69safe0.57–2.890.87–3.061.44–5.95safer0.26–3.190.59–3.350.85–6.54
Yellow cards
33%
23%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.793.33safe0.49–2.590.66–2.921.15–5.51safer0.22–2.850.37–3.210.59–6.06
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.12safe0.00–0.210.00–0.250.00–0.46safer0.00–0.360.00–0.390.00–0.75
GK saves
39%
17%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.792.935.72safe1.35–4.221.37–4.482.72–8.71safer0.97–4.610.95–4.911.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.39–2.33 0.14–2.58 | 1.38 0.52–2.23 0.30–2.46 | 2.74 0.92–4.56 0.44–5.04 | 37% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.46 2.60–6.33 2.11–6.82 | 4.51 2.77–6.25 2.30–6.72 | 8.98 5.37–12.58 4.42–13.54 | 43% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.58 9.66–17.51 8.57–18.60 | 11.98 8.41–15.54 7.45–16.50 | 25.56 18.07–33.05 16.02–35.10 | 59% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.88 5.94–11.82 5.11–12.65 | 8.98 6.30–11.66 5.56–12.39 | 17.85 12.23–23.48 10.66–25.04 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 4.41 2.53–6.29 1.98–6.83 | 3.92 2.27–5.58 1.78–6.07 | 8.33 4.80–11.87 3.76–12.90 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Corners | 5.85 3.64–8.06 3.06–8.64 | 4.58 2.58–6.58 2.04–7.11 | 10.43 6.22–14.64 5.11–15.75 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 56.33 49.53–63.12 47.87–64.79 | 44.30 37.52–51.09 35.84–52.76 | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 530 463–598 445–616 | 408 342–475 324–492 | 939 805–1072 769–1108 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.61 68.58–76.64 67.28–77.93 | 71.04 66.72–75.36 65.41–76.67 | — | 55% 39% |
| Fouls | 10.19 7.35–13.02 6.59–13.78 | 11.38 8.44–14.33 7.69–15.07 | 21.57 15.79–27.35 14.28–28.85 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.73 0.57–2.89 0.26–3.19 | 1.97 0.87–3.06 0.59–3.35 | 3.69 1.44–5.95 0.85–6.54 | 34% 21% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.54 0.49–2.59 0.22–2.85 | 1.79 0.66–2.92 0.37–3.21 | 3.33 1.15–5.51 0.59–6.06 | 33% 23% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.35–4.22 0.97–4.61 | 2.93 1.37–4.48 0.95–4.91 | 5.72 2.72–8.71 1.91–9.52 | 39% 17% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+