Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.192.68safe0.52–2.450.34–2.050.86–4.50safer0.27–2.710.11–2.280.38–4.98
Shots on target
52%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.094.469.55safe3.23–6.962.72–6.205.95–13.16safer2.74–7.452.25–6.674.99–14.11
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9613.4629.41safe12.03–19.889.89–17.0221.92–36.90safer10.94–20.978.93–17.9819.87–38.95
Shots in box
63%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction10.298.3618.66safe7.35–13.245.68–11.0413.03–24.28safer6.52–14.074.94–11.7811.47–25.85
Blocked shots
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.733.738.46safe2.85–6.612.07–5.384.92–11.99safer2.30–7.161.58–5.873.89–13.03
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.494.8710.36safe3.28–7.702.87–6.876.15–14.58safer2.70–8.282.34–7.415.04–15.68
Possession %
41%
55%
homeawayprediction48.4951.51safe41.70–55.2844.73–58.30safer40.03–56.9543.06–59.97
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction431456887safe364–498389–522753–1021safer346–516372–540718–1056
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction71.2875.40safe67.25–75.3171.07–79.72safer65.96–76.6069.77–81.03
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2311.6023.82safe9.39–15.078.65–14.5418.04–29.61safer8.63–15.827.90–15.2916.54–31.11
Offsides
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.813.40safe0.44–2.760.71–2.901.15–5.66safer0.14–3.060.43–3.190.56–6.25
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.083.87safe0.74–2.840.95–3.211.69–6.05safer0.47–3.100.66–3.501.13–6.60
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
36%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.953.296.24safe1.51–4.381.74–4.853.25–9.23safer1.12–4.771.31–5.272.43–10.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.52–2.45 0.27–2.71 | 1.19 0.34–2.05 0.11–2.28 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.38–4.98 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.09 3.23–6.96 2.74–7.45 | 4.46 2.72–6.20 2.25–6.67 | 9.55 5.95–13.16 4.99–14.11 | 52% 36% |
| Total shots | 15.96 12.03–19.88 10.94–20.97 | 13.46 9.89–17.02 8.93–17.98 | 29.41 21.92–36.90 19.87–38.95 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 10.29 7.35–13.24 6.52–14.07 | 8.36 5.68–11.04 4.94–11.78 | 18.66 13.03–24.28 11.47–25.85 | 63% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 4.73 2.85–6.61 2.30–7.16 | 3.73 2.07–5.38 1.58–5.87 | 8.46 4.92–11.99 3.89–13.03 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Corners | 5.49 3.28–7.70 2.70–8.28 | 4.87 2.87–6.87 2.34–7.41 | 10.36 6.15–14.58 5.04–15.68 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 48.49 41.70–55.28 40.03–56.95 | 51.51 44.73–58.30 43.06–59.97 | — | 41% 55% |
| Passes | 431 364–498 346–516 | 456 389–522 372–540 | 887 753–1021 718–1056 | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.28 67.25–75.31 65.96–76.60 | 75.40 71.07–79.72 69.77–81.03 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 12.23 9.39–15.07 8.63–15.82 | 11.60 8.65–14.54 7.90–15.29 | 23.82 18.04–29.61 16.54–31.11 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.06 | 1.81 0.71–2.90 0.43–3.19 | 3.40 1.15–5.66 0.56–6.25 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.84 0.47–3.10 | 2.08 0.95–3.21 0.66–3.50 | 3.87 1.69–6.05 1.13–6.60 | 34% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.95 1.51–4.38 1.12–4.77 | 3.29 1.74–4.85 1.31–5.27 | 6.24 3.25–9.23 2.43–10.04 | 36% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.