Premier League·Regular Season - 15·
Premier League·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
70%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.370.903.26safe1.40–3.340.04–1.751.44–5.09safer1.15–3.590.00–1.980.96–5.57
Shots on target
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.553.5710.12safe4.69–8.411.83–5.326.52–13.73safer4.20–8.901.36–5.785.56–14.68
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction17.779.1326.89safe13.84–21.695.57–12.6919.41–34.38safer12.75–22.784.61–13.6517.36–36.43
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction12.026.3018.33safe9.08–14.963.62–8.9912.70–23.95safer8.25–15.792.89–9.7211.14–25.52
Blocked shots
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.242.547.78safe3.36–7.120.88–4.194.24–11.31safer2.81–7.660.39–4.683.20–12.35
Corners
81%
homeawaytotalprediction7.023.6410.66safe4.80–9.231.64–5.646.44–14.87safer4.23–9.811.11–6.175.34–15.98
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction63.0836.10safe56.29–69.8729.32–42.89safer54.62–71.5427.65–44.56
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction6303691000safe563–698303–436866–1133safer545–716285–453830–1169
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction81.3471.41safe77.31–85.3767.09–75.73safer76.02–86.6665.78–77.04
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1510.8220.97safe7.31–12.997.87–13.7615.19–26.75safer6.56–13.747.13–14.5113.68–28.26
Offsides
21%
18%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.664.21safe0.39–2.721.57–3.751.96–6.47safer0.09–3.021.28–4.041.37–7.06
Yellow cards
23%
19%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.442.373.81safe0.39–2.491.24–3.501.64–5.99safer0.13–2.760.95–3.791.08–6.55
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
21%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.504.036.53safe1.07–3.942.47–5.593.54–9.52safer0.68–4.332.05–6.012.73–10.34
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.37 1.40–3.34 1.15–3.59 | 0.90 0.04–1.75 0.00–1.98 | 3.26 1.44–5.09 0.96–5.57 | 70% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.55 4.69–8.41 4.20–8.90 | 3.57 1.83–5.32 1.36–5.78 | 10.12 6.52–13.73 5.56–14.68 | 78% 13% |
| Total shots | 17.77 13.84–21.69 12.75–22.78 | 9.13 5.57–12.69 4.61–13.65 | 26.89 19.41–34.38 17.36–36.43 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 12.02 9.08–14.96 8.25–15.79 | 6.30 3.62–8.99 2.89–9.72 | 18.33 12.70–23.95 11.14–25.52 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 5.24 3.36–7.12 2.81–7.66 | 2.54 0.88–4.19 0.39–4.68 | 7.78 4.24–11.31 3.20–12.35 | 79% |
| Corners | 7.02 4.80–9.23 4.23–9.81 | 3.64 1.64–5.64 1.11–6.17 | 10.66 6.44–14.87 5.34–15.98 | 81% |
| Possession % | 63.08 56.29–69.87 54.62–71.54 | 36.10 29.32–42.89 27.65–44.56 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 630 563–698 545–716 | 369 303–436 285–453 | 1000 866–1133 830–1169 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.34 77.31–85.37 76.02–86.66 | 71.41 67.09–75.73 65.78–77.04 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 10.15 7.31–12.99 6.56–13.74 | 10.82 7.87–13.76 7.13–14.51 | 20.97 15.19–26.75 13.68–28.26 | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.39–2.72 0.09–3.02 | 2.66 1.57–3.75 1.28–4.04 | 4.21 1.96–6.47 1.37–7.06 | 21% 18% 61% |
| Yellow cards | 1.44 0.39–2.49 0.13–2.76 | 2.37 1.24–3.50 0.95–3.79 | 3.81 1.64–5.99 1.08–6.55 | 23% 19% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.07–3.94 0.68–4.33 | 4.03 2.47–5.59 2.05–6.01 | 6.53 3.54–9.52 2.73–10.34 | 21% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.