Premier League·Regular Season - 15·
Premier League·Regular Season - 15·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
29%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.081.182.26safe0.11–2.050.33–2.040.44–4.08safer0.00–2.300.10–2.260.00–4.56
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.794.147.94safe1.93–5.662.40–5.894.33–11.54safer1.44–6.151.94–6.353.38–12.50
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5412.2024.75safe8.62–16.478.64–15.7617.26–32.23safer7.53–17.567.68–16.7215.21–34.28
Shots in box
43%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction7.958.2016.15safe5.01–10.895.52–10.8810.53–21.77safer4.18–11.724.78–11.628.96–23.34
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.343.566.90safe1.45–5.221.91–5.223.36–10.43safer0.91–5.761.42–5.712.33–11.47
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.074.819.88safe2.86–7.282.81–6.815.66–14.09safer2.28–7.862.27–7.344.56–15.20
Possession %
43%
53%
homeawayprediction49.1651.35safe42.37–55.9544.56–58.13safer40.70–57.6242.89–59.80
Passes
47%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction398405803safe331–465339–471669–936safer312–483321–489633–972
Pass accuracy %
30%
65%
homeawayprediction66.0469.57safe62.01–70.0765.25–73.89safer60.72–71.3663.94–75.20
Fouls
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8314.1125.94safe8.99–14.6611.17–17.0620.16–31.72safer8.23–15.4210.42–17.8018.65–33.22
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.423.13safe0.55–2.870.32–2.510.88–5.38safer0.25–3.170.04–2.800.29–5.97
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.304.22safe0.87–2.971.17–3.432.04–6.40safer0.60–3.240.88–3.721.49–6.96
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.792.705.49safe1.36–4.231.14–4.262.50–8.49safer0.97–4.620.72–4.681.69–9.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.11–2.05 0.00–2.30 | 1.18 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.26 | 2.26 0.44–4.08 0.00–4.56 | 33% 29% 38% |
| Shots on target | 3.79 1.93–5.66 1.44–6.15 | 4.14 2.40–5.89 1.94–6.35 | 7.94 4.33–11.54 3.38–12.50 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.54 8.62–16.47 7.53–17.56 | 12.20 8.64–15.76 7.68–16.72 | 24.75 17.26–32.23 15.21–34.28 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 7.95 5.01–10.89 4.18–11.72 | 8.20 5.52–10.88 4.78–11.62 | 16.15 10.53–21.77 8.96–23.34 | 43% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 3.34 1.45–5.22 0.91–5.76 | 3.56 1.91–5.22 1.42–5.71 | 6.90 3.36–10.43 2.33–11.47 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 5.07 2.86–7.28 2.28–7.86 | 4.81 2.81–6.81 2.27–7.34 | 9.88 5.66–14.09 4.56–15.20 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 49.16 42.37–55.95 40.70–57.62 | 51.35 44.56–58.13 42.89–59.80 | — | 43% 53% |
| Passes | 398 331–465 312–483 | 405 339–471 321–489 | 803 669–936 633–972 | 47% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.04 62.01–70.07 60.72–71.36 | 69.57 65.25–73.89 63.94–75.20 | — | 30% 65% |
| Fouls | 11.83 8.99–14.66 8.23–15.42 | 14.11 11.17–17.06 10.42–17.80 | 25.94 20.16–31.72 18.65–33.22 | 29% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 1.42 0.32–2.51 0.04–2.80 | 3.13 0.88–5.38 0.29–5.97 | 45% 23% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.60–3.24 | 2.30 1.17–3.43 0.88–3.72 | 4.22 2.04–6.40 1.49–6.96 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.36–4.23 0.97–4.62 | 2.70 1.14–4.26 0.72–4.68 | 5.49 2.50–8.49 1.69–9.30 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.