Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.162.86safe0.73–2.670.30–2.011.04–4.68safer0.48–2.920.08–2.240.56–5.16
Shots on target
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.164.109.26safe3.30–7.022.36–5.845.66–12.87safer2.81–7.511.89–6.314.70–13.82
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8211.4426.26safe10.90–18.757.88–15.0018.77–33.75safer9.80–19.846.92–15.9616.72–35.80
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction10.457.4517.91safe7.51–13.394.77–10.1412.28–23.53safer6.68–14.224.04–10.8710.72–25.10
Blocked shots
56%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.783.808.57safe2.89–6.662.14–5.455.04–12.11safer2.35–7.201.65–5.944.00–13.14
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.864.059.91safe3.65–8.072.05–6.055.70–14.12safer3.07–8.651.52–6.584.59–15.23
Possession %
52%
44%
homeawayprediction51.0349.31safe44.24–57.8242.52–56.09safer42.57–59.4940.85–57.76
Passes
61%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction480447927safe413–547380–513793–1061safer395–565363–531758–1096
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction74.1275.84safe70.09–78.1571.52–80.17safer68.80–79.4570.21–81.48
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2011.6721.87safe7.36–13.048.73–14.6216.09–27.65safer6.60–13.797.98–15.3714.58–29.16
Offsides
52%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.203.01safe0.65–2.970.11–2.300.76–5.26safer0.35–3.270.00–2.590.17–5.85
Yellow cards
28%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.203.82safe0.57–2.671.07–3.331.64–6.00safer0.30–2.940.78–3.621.08–6.55
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
36%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.933.296.22safe1.49–4.361.73–4.843.22–9.21safer1.10–4.751.31–5.272.41–10.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.73–2.67 0.48–2.92 | 1.16 0.30–2.01 0.08–2.24 | 2.86 1.04–4.68 0.56–5.16 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.16 3.30–7.02 2.81–7.51 | 4.10 2.36–5.84 1.89–6.31 | 9.26 5.66–12.87 4.70–13.82 | 57% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.82 10.90–18.75 9.80–19.84 | 11.44 7.88–15.00 6.92–15.96 | 26.26 18.77–33.75 16.72–35.80 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 10.45 7.51–13.39 6.68–14.22 | 7.45 4.77–10.14 4.04–10.87 | 17.91 12.28–23.53 10.72–25.10 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.78 2.89–6.66 2.35–7.20 | 3.80 2.14–5.45 1.65–5.94 | 8.57 5.04–12.11 4.00–13.14 | 56% 13% 30% |
| Corners | 5.86 3.65–8.07 3.07–8.65 | 4.05 2.05–6.05 1.52–6.58 | 9.91 5.70–14.12 4.59–15.23 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 51.03 44.24–57.82 42.57–59.49 | 49.31 42.52–56.09 40.85–57.76 | — | 52% 44% |
| Passes | 480 413–547 395–565 | 447 380–513 363–531 | 927 793–1061 758–1096 | 61% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.12 70.09–78.15 68.80–79.45 | 75.84 71.52–80.17 70.21–81.48 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 10.20 7.36–13.04 6.60–13.79 | 11.67 8.73–14.62 7.98–15.37 | 21.87 16.09–27.65 14.58–29.16 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.35–3.27 | 1.20 0.11–2.30 0.00–2.59 | 3.01 0.76–5.26 0.17–5.85 | 52% 23% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.67 0.30–2.94 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 3.82 1.64–6.00 1.08–6.55 | 28% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.49–4.36 1.10–4.75 | 3.29 1.73–4.84 1.31–5.27 | 6.22 3.22–9.21 2.41–10.02 | 36% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.