Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
25%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.082.69safe0.64–2.580.23–1.940.87–4.52safer0.39–2.830.00–2.170.39–5.00
Shots on target
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.993.598.58safe3.13–6.851.85–5.334.97–12.18safer2.64–7.341.38–5.804.02–13.14
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2910.3025.59safe11.36–19.216.74–13.8618.10–33.07safer10.27–20.305.78–14.8216.05–35.12
Shots in box
74%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction10.116.9217.03safe7.17–13.054.24–9.6011.40–22.65safer6.34–13.883.50–10.349.84–24.22
Blocked shots
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.652.977.62safe2.77–6.541.32–4.624.09–11.16safer2.23–7.080.82–5.113.05–12.19
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction6.094.2210.31safe3.87–8.302.22–6.226.09–14.52safer3.30–8.871.69–6.754.99–15.63
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.3945.57safe47.60–61.1838.78–52.35safer45.93–62.8537.11–54.02
Passes
78%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction479386865safe412–546320–453731–999safer394–564302–470696–1034
Pass accuracy %
53%
41%
homeawayprediction69.4668.28safe65.43–73.4963.96–72.61safer64.14–74.7862.65–73.92
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9211.9722.89safe8.08–13.769.03–14.9217.11–28.67safer7.33–14.518.28–15.6715.61–30.18
Offsides
56%
19%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction2.411.593.99safe1.25–3.570.49–2.681.74–6.24safer0.94–3.870.20–2.971.15–6.83
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.582.173.75safe0.53–2.631.05–3.301.57–5.93safer0.26–2.890.75–3.591.02–6.49
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
26%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.333.375.71safe0.90–3.771.82–4.932.71–8.70safer0.51–4.161.39–5.351.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.64–2.58 0.39–2.83 | 1.08 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.17 | 2.69 0.87–4.52 0.39–5.00 | 50% 25% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.99 3.13–6.85 2.64–7.34 | 3.59 1.85–5.33 1.38–5.80 | 8.58 4.97–12.18 4.02–13.14 | 62% 26% |
| Total shots | 15.29 11.36–19.21 10.27–20.30 | 10.30 6.74–13.86 5.78–14.82 | 25.59 18.10–33.07 16.05–35.12 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 10.11 7.17–13.05 6.34–13.88 | 6.92 4.24–9.60 3.50–10.34 | 17.03 11.40–22.65 9.84–24.22 | 74% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 4.65 2.77–6.54 2.23–7.08 | 2.97 1.32–4.62 0.82–5.11 | 7.62 4.09–11.16 3.05–12.19 | 67% 21% |
| Corners | 6.09 3.87–8.30 3.30–8.87 | 4.22 2.22–6.22 1.69–6.75 | 10.31 6.09–14.52 4.99–15.63 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 54.39 47.60–61.18 45.93–62.85 | 45.57 38.78–52.35 37.11–54.02 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 479 412–546 394–564 | 386 320–453 302–470 | 865 731–999 696–1034 | 78% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.46 65.43–73.49 64.14–74.78 | 68.28 63.96–72.61 62.65–73.92 | — | 53% 41% |
| Fouls | 10.92 8.08–13.76 7.33–14.51 | 11.97 9.03–14.92 8.28–15.67 | 22.89 17.11–28.67 15.61–30.18 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 2.41 1.25–3.57 0.94–3.87 | 1.59 0.49–2.68 0.20–2.97 | 3.99 1.74–6.24 1.15–6.83 | 56% 19% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 0.53–2.63 0.26–2.89 | 2.17 1.05–3.30 0.75–3.59 | 3.75 1.57–5.93 1.02–6.49 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.33 0.90–3.77 0.51–4.16 | 3.37 1.82–4.93 1.39–5.35 | 5.71 2.71–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 26% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+