Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
51%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.202.99safe0.82–2.760.35–2.051.16–4.81safer0.57–3.010.12–2.280.69–5.29
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.124.129.24safe3.25–6.982.38–5.865.63–12.84safer2.77–7.471.91–6.334.68–13.80
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1212.0726.19safe10.19–18.048.51–15.6318.70–33.67safer9.10–19.137.55–16.5916.65–35.72
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.708.1317.83safe6.75–12.645.45–10.8112.20–23.45safer5.93–13.474.71–11.5510.64–25.02
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.873.497.36safe1.99–5.751.84–5.143.82–10.89safer1.44–6.291.34–5.632.79–11.93
Corners
59%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.824.6010.42safe3.61–8.032.60–6.606.20–14.63safer3.03–8.612.06–7.135.10–15.74
Possession %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction52.6947.91safe45.90–59.4841.13–54.70safer44.23–61.1539.46–56.37
Passes
69%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction494432926safe427–561366–499793–1060safer409–579348–516757–1096
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction72.9273.39safe68.89–76.9469.06–77.71safer67.59–78.2467.76–79.02
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8411.9222.75safe8.00–13.678.97–14.8616.97–28.54safer7.24–14.438.22–15.6115.47–30.04
Offsides
65%
16%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.891.534.42safe1.73–4.050.44–2.632.17–6.67safer1.43–4.350.15–2.921.58–7.26
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.982.254.23safe0.93–3.031.12–3.382.05–6.41safer0.66–3.290.83–3.671.50–6.97
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.446.29safe1.42–4.291.88–4.993.30–9.28safer1.03–4.681.45–5.422.49–10.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.79 0.82–2.76 0.57–3.01 | 1.20 0.35–2.05 0.12–2.28 | 2.99 1.16–4.81 0.69–5.29 | 51% 23% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.12 3.25–6.98 2.77–7.47 | 4.12 2.38–5.86 1.91–6.33 | 9.24 5.63–12.84 4.68–13.80 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 14.12 10.19–18.04 9.10–19.13 | 12.07 8.51–15.63 7.55–16.59 | 26.19 18.70–33.67 16.65–35.72 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 9.70 6.75–12.64 5.93–13.47 | 8.13 5.45–10.81 4.71–11.55 | 17.83 12.20–23.45 10.64–25.02 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 1.99–5.75 1.44–6.29 | 3.49 1.84–5.14 1.34–5.63 | 7.36 3.82–10.89 2.79–11.93 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.82 3.61–8.03 3.03–8.61 | 4.60 2.60–6.60 2.06–7.13 | 10.42 6.20–14.63 5.10–15.74 | 59% 30% |
| Possession % | 52.69 45.90–59.48 44.23–61.15 | 47.91 41.13–54.70 39.46–56.37 | — | 59% 37% |
| Passes | 494 427–561 409–579 | 432 366–499 348–516 | 926 793–1060 757–1096 | 69% 30% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.92 68.89–76.94 67.59–78.24 | 73.39 69.06–77.71 67.76–79.02 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 10.84 8.00–13.67 7.24–14.43 | 11.92 8.97–14.86 8.22–15.61 | 22.75 16.97–28.54 15.47–30.04 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 2.89 1.73–4.05 1.43–4.35 | 1.53 0.44–2.63 0.15–2.92 | 4.42 2.17–6.67 1.58–7.26 | 65% 16% 18% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.03 0.66–3.29 | 2.25 1.12–3.38 0.83–3.67 | 4.23 2.05–6.41 1.50–6.97 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.86 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 3.44 1.88–4.99 1.45–5.42 | 6.29 3.30–9.28 2.49–10.10 | 33% 16% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+