Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.410.743.15safe1.44–3.380.00–1.591.32–4.97safer1.19–3.630.00–1.820.84–5.45
Shots on target
86%
homeawaytotalprediction6.702.869.56safe4.84–8.561.11–4.605.95–13.16safer4.35–9.050.65–5.075.00–14.12
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction18.847.9526.78safe14.91–22.764.38–11.5119.30–34.27safer13.82–23.853.43–12.4717.24–36.32
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction12.565.1617.72safe9.62–15.502.48–7.8412.09–23.34safer8.79–16.331.74–8.5710.53–24.91
Blocked shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction5.741.927.66safe3.86–7.620.27–3.574.12–11.19safer3.31–8.160.00–4.073.09–12.23
Corners
91%
homeawaytotalprediction7.592.8610.45safe5.38–9.810.86–4.866.24–14.67safer4.81–10.380.33–5.405.13–15.78
Possession %
100%
homeawayprediction73.9624.94safe67.17–80.7518.16–31.73safer65.50–82.4216.48–33.40
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction7582431001safe690–825177–310867–1135safer672–843159–327832–1170
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction84.8466.58safe80.81–88.8762.25–70.90safer79.52–90.1660.94–72.21
Fouls
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction8.7710.7819.55safe5.93–11.607.84–13.7213.76–25.33safer5.17–12.367.09–14.4712.26–26.83
Offsides
27%
18%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.842.634.47safe0.68–3.001.54–3.732.22–6.73safer0.38–3.301.25–4.011.63–7.31
Yellow cards
20%
20%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.172.153.32safe0.12–2.221.03–3.281.15–5.50safer0.00–2.490.73–3.570.59–6.06
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.080.12safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.75
GK saves
76%
homeawaytotalprediction1.994.256.23safe0.55–3.422.69–5.803.24–9.23safer0.16–3.812.27–6.232.43–10.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.41 1.44–3.38 1.19–3.63 | 0.74 0.00–1.59 0.00–1.82 | 3.15 1.32–4.97 0.84–5.45 | 74% 16% |
| Shots on target | 6.70 4.84–8.56 4.35–9.05 | 2.86 1.11–4.60 0.65–5.07 | 9.56 5.95–13.16 5.00–14.12 | 86% |
| Total shots | 18.84 14.91–22.76 13.82–23.85 | 7.95 4.38–11.51 3.43–12.47 | 26.78 19.30–34.27 17.24–36.32 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 12.56 9.62–15.50 8.79–16.33 | 5.16 2.48–7.84 1.74–8.57 | 17.72 12.09–23.34 10.53–24.91 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 5.74 3.86–7.62 3.31–8.16 | 1.92 0.27–3.57 0.00–4.07 | 7.66 4.12–11.19 3.09–12.23 | 89% |
| Corners | 7.59 5.38–9.81 4.81–10.38 | 2.86 0.86–4.86 0.33–5.40 | 10.45 6.24–14.67 5.13–15.78 | 91% |
| Possession % | 73.96 67.17–80.75 65.50–82.42 | 24.94 18.16–31.73 16.48–33.40 | — | 100% |
| Passes | 758 690–825 672–843 | 243 177–310 159–327 | 1001 867–1135 832–1170 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.84 80.81–88.87 79.52–90.16 | 66.58 62.25–70.90 60.94–72.21 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 8.77 5.93–11.60 5.17–12.36 | 10.78 7.84–13.72 7.09–14.47 | 19.55 13.76–25.33 12.26–26.83 | 28% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.38–3.30 | 2.63 1.54–3.73 1.25–4.01 | 4.47 2.22–6.73 1.63–7.31 | 27% 18% 55% |
| Yellow cards | 1.17 0.12–2.22 0.00–2.49 | 2.15 1.03–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 3.32 1.15–5.50 0.59–6.06 | 20% 20% 60% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 1.99 0.55–3.42 0.16–3.81 | 4.25 2.69–5.80 2.27–6.23 | 6.23 3.24–9.23 2.43–10.04 | 76% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.