Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
28%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.052.32safe0.30–2.230.20–1.910.50–4.14safer0.05–2.490.00–2.140.02–4.62
Shots on target
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.873.718.59safe3.01–6.741.97–5.464.98–12.19safer2.52–7.231.51–5.924.03–13.15
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction15.4411.5627.00safe11.52–19.368.00–15.1219.51–34.49safer10.42–20.467.04–16.0817.46–36.54
Shots in box
65%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction9.747.6317.37safe6.80–12.684.95–10.3111.74–22.99safer5.97–13.514.21–11.0410.18–24.56
Blocked shots
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.963.188.14safe3.08–6.841.53–4.834.60–11.67safer2.53–7.381.03–5.323.57–12.71
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.864.4310.28safe3.64–8.072.42–6.436.07–14.49safer3.07–8.641.89–6.964.96–15.60
Possession %
58%
38%
homeawayprediction52.0647.84safe45.27–58.8541.05–54.62safer43.60–60.5239.38–56.29
Passes
65%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction446398844safe379–513332–464710–978safer361–532314–482675–1014
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction68.7167.31safe64.68–72.7462.99–71.64safer63.39–74.0361.68–72.95
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6610.8623.52safe9.82–15.497.92–13.8117.73–29.30safer9.06–16.257.17–14.5516.23–30.80
Offsides
29%
23%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.803.14safe0.18–2.500.70–2.890.88–5.39safer0.00–2.800.42–3.180.29–5.98
Yellow cards
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.973.71safe0.69–2.790.84–3.101.53–5.89safer0.43–3.060.55–3.390.98–6.45
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.47safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
27%
16%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.453.445.90safe1.02–3.891.89–5.002.90–8.89safer0.63–4.281.46–5.422.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.23 0.05–2.49 | 1.05 0.20–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 2.32 0.50–4.14 0.02–4.62 | 41% 28% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.87 3.01–6.74 2.52–7.23 | 3.71 1.97–5.46 1.51–5.92 | 8.59 4.98–12.19 4.03–13.15 | 59% 28% |
| Total shots | 15.44 11.52–19.36 10.42–20.46 | 11.56 8.00–15.12 7.04–16.08 | 27.00 19.51–34.49 17.46–36.54 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.74 6.80–12.68 5.97–13.51 | 7.63 4.95–10.31 4.21–11.04 | 17.37 11.74–22.99 10.18–24.56 | 65% 26% |
| Blocked shots | 4.96 3.08–6.84 2.53–7.38 | 3.18 1.53–4.83 1.03–5.32 | 8.14 4.60–11.67 3.57–12.71 | 67% 21% |
| Corners | 5.86 3.64–8.07 3.07–8.64 | 4.43 2.42–6.43 1.89–6.96 | 10.28 6.07–14.49 4.96–15.60 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 52.06 45.27–58.85 43.60–60.52 | 47.84 41.05–54.62 39.38–56.29 | — | 58% 38% |
| Passes | 446 379–513 361–532 | 398 332–464 314–482 | 844 710–978 675–1014 | 65% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.71 64.68–72.74 63.39–74.03 | 67.31 62.99–71.64 61.68–72.95 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 12.66 9.82–15.49 9.06–16.25 | 10.86 7.92–13.81 7.17–14.55 | 23.52 17.73–29.30 16.23–30.80 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.34 0.18–2.50 0.00–2.80 | 1.80 0.70–2.89 0.42–3.18 | 3.14 0.88–5.39 0.29–5.98 | 29% 23% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.74 0.69–2.79 0.43–3.06 | 1.97 0.84–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 3.71 1.53–5.89 0.98–6.45 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.47 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.45 1.02–3.89 0.63–4.28 | 3.44 1.89–5.00 1.46–5.42 | 5.90 2.90–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 27% 16% 58% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.