Premier League·Regular Season - 16·
Premier League·Regular Season - 16·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
27%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.232.50safe0.30–2.240.38–2.090.68–4.33safer0.05–2.490.15–2.310.20–4.81
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.243.918.15safe2.37–6.102.17–5.664.55–11.76safer1.88–6.591.71–6.123.59–12.71
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2811.7525.03safe9.35–17.208.19–15.3117.54–32.52safer8.26–18.307.23–16.2715.49–34.57
Shots in box
58%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction8.847.5516.39safe5.90–11.784.87–10.2310.77–22.01safer5.07–12.614.13–10.979.20–23.58
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.813.327.13safe1.92–5.691.67–4.973.59–10.66safer1.38–6.231.18–5.472.56–11.70
Corners
49%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.8710.16safe3.08–7.512.87–6.875.95–14.38safer2.51–8.082.33–7.404.84–15.48
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction46.3653.90safe39.57–53.1547.12–60.69safer37.90–54.8245.45–62.36
Passes
38%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction408444852safe341–475377–510718–985safer322–493360–528682–1021
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction66.1670.96safe62.13–70.1966.64–75.29safer60.84–71.4865.33–76.60
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4412.5924.03safe8.60–14.279.65–15.5418.25–29.81safer7.84–15.038.90–16.2916.74–31.32
Offsides
35%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.422.75safe0.17–2.490.32–2.510.49–5.00safer0.00–2.790.03–2.800.00–5.59
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.721.893.61safe0.67–2.760.76–3.021.43–5.79safer0.40–3.030.47–3.310.87–6.34
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
37%
18%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.572.845.40safe1.13–4.001.28–4.392.41–8.40safer0.74–4.390.86–4.821.60–9.21
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.23 0.38–2.09 0.15–2.31 | 2.50 0.68–4.33 0.20–4.81 | 38% 27% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.24 2.37–6.10 1.88–6.59 | 3.91 2.17–5.66 1.71–6.12 | 8.15 4.55–11.76 3.59–12.71 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.28 9.35–17.20 8.26–18.30 | 11.75 8.19–15.31 7.23–16.27 | 25.03 17.54–32.52 15.49–34.57 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 8.84 5.90–11.78 5.07–12.61 | 7.55 4.87–10.23 4.13–10.97 | 16.39 10.77–22.01 9.20–23.58 | 58% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 1.92–5.69 1.38–6.23 | 3.32 1.67–4.97 1.18–5.47 | 7.13 3.59–10.66 2.56–11.70 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.30 3.08–7.51 2.51–8.08 | 4.87 2.87–6.87 2.33–7.40 | 10.16 5.95–14.38 4.84–15.48 | 49% 38% |
| Possession % | 46.36 39.57–53.15 37.90–54.82 | 53.90 47.12–60.69 45.45–62.36 | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 408 341–475 322–493 | 444 377–510 360–528 | 852 718–985 682–1021 | 38% 62% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.16 62.13–70.19 60.84–71.48 | 70.96 66.64–75.29 65.33–76.60 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 11.44 8.60–14.27 7.84–15.03 | 12.59 9.65–15.54 8.90–16.29 | 24.03 18.25–29.81 16.74–31.32 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.33 0.17–2.49 0.00–2.79 | 1.42 0.32–2.51 0.03–2.80 | 2.75 0.49–5.00 0.00–5.59 | 35% 26% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.76 0.40–3.03 | 1.89 0.76–3.02 0.47–3.31 | 3.61 1.43–5.79 0.87–6.34 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.13–4.00 0.74–4.39 | 2.84 1.28–4.39 0.86–4.82 | 5.40 2.41–8.40 1.60–9.21 | 37% 18% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.