Premier League·Regular Season - 17·
Premier League·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
25%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.252.80safe0.58–2.520.40–2.110.98–4.63safer0.33–2.770.17–2.330.50–5.11
Shots on target
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.923.878.79safe3.06–6.782.13–5.615.18–12.39safer2.57–7.271.66–6.084.23–13.35
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4211.1825.60safe10.49–18.347.61–14.7418.11–33.08safer9.40–19.446.65–15.7016.06–35.13
Shots in box
58%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.438.0317.45safe6.48–12.375.34–10.7111.83–23.07safer5.65–13.204.61–11.4410.26–24.64
Blocked shots
64%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.312.827.13safe2.43–6.191.17–4.473.59–10.66safer1.88–6.730.67–4.972.56–11.70
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.764.3310.09safe3.55–7.972.33–6.335.88–14.30safer2.97–8.551.80–6.864.77–15.41
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.9544.69safe49.16–62.7437.91–51.48safer47.49–64.4136.23–53.15
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction507386893safe440–574320–453759–1027safer421–592302–470724–1062
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction71.4169.09safe67.38–75.4464.77–73.42safer66.09–76.7363.46–74.73
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8012.3224.12safe8.96–14.649.38–15.2718.34–29.91safer8.21–15.398.63–16.0216.84–31.41
Offsides
20%
16%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction1.793.114.90safe0.63–2.962.01–4.202.65–7.15safer0.33–3.261.72–4.492.06–7.74
Yellow cards
26%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.384.02safe0.59–2.691.25–3.511.84–6.20safer0.32–2.950.96–3.801.29–6.76
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.070.14safe0.00–0.230.00–0.260.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.390.00–0.77
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.553.315.86safe1.12–3.991.75–4.862.86–8.85safer0.73–4.381.32–5.292.05–9.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.58–2.52 0.33–2.77 | 1.25 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.33 | 2.80 0.98–4.63 0.50–5.11 | 44% 25% 31% |
| Shots on target | 4.92 3.06–6.78 2.57–7.27 | 3.87 2.13–5.61 1.66–6.08 | 8.79 5.18–12.39 4.23–13.35 | 57% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.42 10.49–18.34 9.40–19.44 | 11.18 7.61–14.74 6.65–15.70 | 25.60 18.11–33.08 16.06–35.13 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 9.43 6.48–12.37 5.65–13.20 | 8.03 5.34–10.71 4.61–11.44 | 17.45 11.83–23.07 10.26–24.64 | 58% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 4.31 2.43–6.19 1.88–6.73 | 2.82 1.17–4.47 0.67–4.97 | 7.13 3.59–10.66 2.56–11.70 | 64% 13% 23% |
| Corners | 5.76 3.55–7.97 2.97–8.55 | 4.33 2.33–6.33 1.80–6.86 | 10.09 5.88–14.30 4.77–15.41 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 55.95 49.16–62.74 47.49–64.41 | 44.69 37.91–51.48 36.23–53.15 | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 507 440–574 421–592 | 386 320–453 302–470 | 893 759–1027 724–1062 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.41 67.38–75.44 66.09–76.73 | 69.09 64.77–73.42 63.46–74.73 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 11.80 8.96–14.64 8.21–15.39 | 12.32 9.38–15.27 8.63–16.02 | 24.12 18.34–29.91 16.84–31.41 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.79 0.63–2.96 0.33–3.26 | 3.11 2.01–4.20 1.72–4.49 | 4.90 2.65–7.15 2.06–7.74 | 20% 16% 64% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.32–2.95 | 2.38 1.25–3.51 0.96–3.80 | 4.02 1.84–6.20 1.29–6.76 | 26% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.55 1.12–3.99 0.73–4.38 | 3.31 1.75–4.86 1.32–5.29 | 5.86 2.86–8.85 2.05–9.66 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.