Premier League·Regular Season - 17·
Premier League·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
24%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.051.742.80safe0.08–2.020.89–2.600.97–4.62safer0.00–2.270.66–2.830.49–5.10
Shots on target
22%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction3.585.428.99safe1.71–5.443.67–7.165.39–12.60safer1.22–5.933.21–7.624.43–13.55
Total shots
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9015.3726.27safe6.97–14.8211.81–18.9418.78–33.76safer5.88–15.9110.85–19.9016.73–35.81
Shots in box
15%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction6.7010.3917.09safe3.75–9.647.71–13.0711.46–22.71safer2.92–10.476.97–13.819.90–24.28
Blocked shots
25%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.304.667.96safe1.42–5.193.00–6.314.43–11.50safer0.88–5.732.51–6.803.39–12.53
Corners
36%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction4.655.279.91safe2.43–6.863.27–7.275.70–14.12safer1.86–7.432.73–7.804.59–15.23
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.2058.39safe35.41–48.9951.61–65.17safer33.74–50.6649.93–66.85
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction391539930safe324–458472–605796–1064safer306–477455–623761–1099
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction65.3078.08safe61.27–69.3373.76–82.40safer59.98–70.6272.45–83.71
Fouls
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5310.5323.06safe9.69–15.377.59–13.4817.28–28.84safer8.94–16.126.84–14.2215.77–30.35
Offsides
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.543.00safe0.30–2.620.45–2.630.75–5.25safer0.00–2.920.16–2.920.16–5.84
Yellow cards
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.831.723.55safe0.78–2.880.59–2.851.37–5.72safer0.51–3.140.30–3.140.81–6.28
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.070.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
55%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.322.485.80safe1.89–4.760.92–4.042.81–8.80safer1.50–5.150.50–4.462.00–9.61
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.05 0.08–2.02 0.00–2.27 | 1.74 0.89–2.60 0.66–2.83 | 2.80 0.97–4.62 0.49–5.10 | 23% 24% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.58 1.71–5.44 1.22–5.93 | 5.42 3.67–7.16 3.21–7.62 | 8.99 5.39–12.60 4.43–13.55 | 22% 67% |
| Total shots | 10.90 6.97–14.82 5.88–15.91 | 15.37 11.81–18.94 10.85–19.90 | 26.27 18.78–33.76 16.73–35.81 | 16% 78% |
| Shots in box | 6.70 3.75–9.64 2.92–10.47 | 10.39 7.71–13.07 6.97–13.81 | 17.09 11.46–22.71 9.90–24.28 | 15% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 3.30 1.42–5.19 0.88–5.73 | 4.66 3.00–6.31 2.51–6.80 | 7.96 4.43–11.50 3.39–12.53 | 25% 62% |
| Corners | 4.65 2.43–6.86 1.86–7.43 | 5.27 3.27–7.27 2.73–7.80 | 9.91 5.70–14.12 4.59–15.23 | 36% 51% |
| Possession % | 42.20 35.41–48.99 33.74–50.66 | 58.39 51.61–65.17 49.93–66.85 | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 391 324–458 306–477 | 539 472–605 455–623 | 930 796–1064 761–1099 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.30 61.27–69.33 59.98–70.62 | 78.08 73.76–82.40 72.45–83.71 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 12.53 9.69–15.37 8.94–16.12 | 10.53 7.59–13.48 6.84–14.22 | 23.06 17.28–28.84 15.77–30.35 | 62% 30% |
| Offsides | 1.46 0.30–2.62 0.00–2.92 | 1.54 0.45–2.63 0.16–2.92 | 3.00 0.75–5.25 0.16–5.84 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.78–2.88 0.51–3.14 | 1.72 0.59–2.85 0.30–3.14 | 3.55 1.37–5.72 0.81–6.28 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.32 1.89–4.76 1.50–5.15 | 2.48 0.92–4.04 0.50–4.46 | 5.80 2.81–8.80 2.00–9.61 | 55% 16% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.