Premier League·Regular Season - 17·
Premier League·Regular Season - 17·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.172.43safe0.30–2.240.31–2.020.61–4.26safer0.05–2.490.08–2.250.13–4.74
Shots on target
46%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.963.747.69safe2.09–5.821.99–5.484.09–11.30safer1.60–6.311.53–5.943.13–12.25
Total shots
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5111.6825.19safe9.58–17.438.12–15.2417.70–32.68safer8.49–18.537.16–16.2015.65–34.73
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction8.987.8216.80safe6.04–11.935.14–10.5011.18–22.43safer5.21–12.764.40–11.249.61–23.99
Blocked shots
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.343.798.12safe2.46–6.222.13–5.444.59–11.66safer1.91–6.761.64–5.933.55–12.69
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.654.6910.33safe3.43–7.862.69–6.696.12–14.55safer2.86–8.432.15–7.225.01–15.65
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction50.7448.10safe43.95–57.5341.32–54.88safer42.28–59.2039.64–56.56
Passes
58%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction424398822safe357–491332–465688–956safer339–509314–482653–992
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction65.6869.48safe61.65–69.7165.16–73.81safer60.36–71.0163.85–75.11
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0112.4624.47safe9.17–14.859.51–15.4018.69–30.25safer8.42–15.608.76–16.1517.18–31.76
Offsides
38%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.252.57safe0.16–2.480.16–2.340.32–4.82safer0.00–2.780.00–2.630.00–5.41
Yellow cards
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.133.77safe0.59–2.691.01–3.261.59–5.95safer0.32–2.950.71–3.551.04–6.51
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.582.635.21safe1.15–4.021.07–4.182.22–8.20safer0.76–4.410.65–4.611.41–9.02
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.17 0.31–2.02 0.08–2.25 | 2.43 0.61–4.26 0.13–4.74 | 39% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 3.96 2.09–5.82 1.60–6.31 | 3.74 1.99–5.48 1.53–5.94 | 7.69 4.09–11.30 3.13–12.25 | 46% 15% 40% |
| Total shots | 13.51 9.58–17.43 8.49–18.53 | 11.68 8.12–15.24 7.16–16.20 | 25.19 17.70–32.68 15.65–34.73 | 60% 32% |
| Shots in box | 8.98 6.04–11.93 5.21–12.76 | 7.82 5.14–10.50 4.40–11.24 | 16.80 11.18–22.43 9.61–23.99 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 4.34 2.46–6.22 1.91–6.76 | 3.79 2.13–5.44 1.64–5.93 | 8.12 4.59–11.66 3.55–12.69 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Corners | 5.65 3.43–7.86 2.86–8.43 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.15–7.22 | 10.33 6.12–14.55 5.01–15.65 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 50.74 43.95–57.53 42.28–59.20 | 48.10 41.32–54.88 39.64–56.56 | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 424 357–491 339–509 | 398 332–465 314–482 | 822 688–956 653–992 | 58% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.68 61.65–69.71 60.36–71.01 | 69.48 65.16–73.81 63.85–75.11 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 12.01 9.17–14.85 8.42–15.60 | 12.46 9.51–15.40 8.76–16.15 | 24.47 18.69–30.25 17.18–31.76 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.32 0.16–2.48 0.00–2.78 | 1.25 0.16–2.34 0.00–2.63 | 2.57 0.32–4.82 0.00–5.41 | 38% 27% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.32–2.95 | 2.13 1.01–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 3.77 1.59–5.95 1.04–6.51 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.15–4.02 0.76–4.41 | 2.63 1.07–4.18 0.65–4.61 | 5.21 2.22–8.20 1.41–9.02 | 40% 18% 42% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.